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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IndioBlues who wrote (62249)3/16/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: Jon Cave  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Stole some FLC at 15 7/8 today <G>.

Looks like maybe investors are starting to focus on earnings instead of every 5 cent move in the price of oil. It doesn't really matter if oil is at 30 or 25 as long as investors think oil will stay above 20 the outlook for a company like FLC is terrific.

Glad to see the independents move up today with the broader market today. Wonder if that will continue ?

Overweight financials myself with my largest holding in WM.



To: IndioBlues who wrote (62249)3/16/2000 12:50:00 PM
From: JungleInvestor  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
Some of the oldtimers on the thread will remember that last year at this time I was 100% invested in Seven Seas Petroleum (SEV). What a mistake, it eventually sank from 4 1/4 to 1 1/2 and I lost a lot of money! I was like George of the Jungle and ran straight into that tree. Since then I invested in a number of other Oilpatch stocks and recouped much of the loss. Well March madness is here again and I sold everything to invest 100% in SEV (except for naked long term calls in FLC, OEI, EOG, PXD, UPR, XTO and FGH). What would compel me to do such a thing again (beyond the obvious "he's crazy"). In my view, SEV has the greatest risk/reward of any stock I ever saw. It is sitting on potential reserves estimated from 1 billion bbls to over 7 billion bbl. The stock went to $30 when they hit paydirt on 5 straight wells, but then they had misses on 5 and the stock tanked. They then hired a new team of field management and technical people and recompleted one of the misses using horizontal drilling (vs. vertical on all others) and hit black gold again. Horizontal drilling appears to have resolved the technical problems of reaching the oil. They have tested the reservoir that is close to the surface (about 6,000 feet drilling depth) extensively and submitted an application for the field to be declared commercial by the Colombian government oil agency (Ecopetrol). Pressure in one well oscillated with the moon cycle, which effect, their chairman says, has only been seen in a handful of the world's largest reservoirs. There is an underlying deep reservoir that is also potentially huge.

Another risk is political uncertainty. The state oil agency (Ecopetrol) that SEV needs to go through has been a huge roadblock. SEV added Dr. James Schlesinger (former Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy) to its BOD last September and more importantly Colombia (and therefore Ecopetrol)has become easier to deal with and is now giving drillers more incentives. This is occurring because Colombia, which may have potential reserves of over 30 billion barrels, probably will need to import oil within a few years because of their past hard-to-do-business-with attitude, guerrila activities, and minimum incentives. Last September SEV replaced their president and signed an agreement with Ecopetrol on: field testing, when Ecopetrol will respond to their application for commerciality, and a pipeline. Ecopetrol should respond to SEV's request for a declaration of commerciality within a month per terms of this agreement. George Soros and State Street Research hold large investments in SEV.

Well this summarizes my March madness. I plan to hold my entire SEV position until it hits $30 and then diversify some. This will be a welcome respite from the trading I've been doing. Looking back, it appears that for me trading was a huge mistake. I selected the right industry at the right time, bought stocks on the cheap (VTS at 10, WFT at 19, RIG at $20, FLC at 6 to 8, CRK at 2 1/2, etc, etc) and sold them all for gains - but small gains compared to buying and holding. Trading, for me, has been a lot of work for nothing. This is one of the best message boards and I appreciate the excellent info posted here. But it will be a relief not to have to read all of this Boards (only the SEV board now) and figure when to buy and sell. Thanks everyone for the education in the Oilpatch! I will probably be back after SEV reaches its target so I can get some info on diversification stocks, but until then adios and good luck with Boom 2000!