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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8102)	3/16/2000 4:12:00 PM
From: Mark Madden	Respond to of 9256

Z - RDRT says they plan to introduce 20gb per platter in September and have it qualified and in full production by December. They also said this 100% growth rate will continue for a few years. <When do the laws of diminishing returns begin to apply?> I think they have already been applied to the profits last year. Regards, Mark

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8102)	3/16/2000 8:25:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9256

Z, Mark; <<Mark:I wonder if the costs of glass platters will offset the savings in fewer components.>> The cost differential between glass and aluminum substrates has been narrowed substantially to roughly 12% making a finished glass blank come in around $3.25. This isn't enough to offset the cost savings of reduced component counts. <<Z: When do the laws of diminishing returns begin to apply?>> I think one of the arguments we have seen here has been that we have passed that point but that is a PC-centric point of view, of course. I do not think there are any diminishing returns from the accelerated density curve in terms of market growth and the introduction of new applications. At least there are none until we hit the so-called paramagnetic limit that is theorized today to be around 100Gb/psi. I believe the run up in DD stocks comes from the growing awareness of the growth potential for non-PC storage coupled with signs of a robust PC market to carry us for a while (WIN-2000 et al) and a marked improvement in managing inventory and factory output. Still, I do not think we are going to see a repeat of gross margins similar to what the industry had before this downturn began two and half years ago. The real question is who is going to thrive on 10-12% gross margins. Best, Stitch

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8102)	3/16/2000 8:40:00 PM
From: Michael Young	Respond to of 9256

Komag expects Q1 shipments to exceed estimates SAN JOSE, Calif., March 16 (Reuters) - Komag Inc. <KMAG.O>, which makes disks used to store data on computer drives, said on Thursday that its shipments in the first quarter of 2000 will exceed previous estimates. The San Jose, Calif.-based company also announced an upward revision of its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 2, 2000 due to the favorable resolution of certain income tax audits. Komag had said previously that it expected first quarter 2000 unit shipments to be sequentially flat compared to the 8.9 million units shipped in the fourth quarter of 1999, but the company said on Thursday that shipments will actually increase 12-8 percent for the quarter. "Further our current expectation is that the strong demand we are now experiencing will continue into the second quarter," T.H. Tan, Komag's chief executive officer, said in a statement. "While we do not expect to become profitable at current volume levels, our first quarter financial results should show a significantly lower operating loss than in any quarter last year," he added. Komag also revised its net income for the fourth quarter of 1999 to $5.9 million, or 9 cents per share, from the previously reported net loss of $21.1 million, or 32 cents per share, to reflect a reduction in tax liability.