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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (50458)	3/16/2000 8:27:00 PM
From: baystock	Respond to of 117016

A post from Kitco to boost the moral of long suffering gold share owners: Date: Thu Mar 16 2000 19:18 Netpi (Gold stock rally delayed not aborted - Nothing in today's action in any way nullifies the technical ) ID#389193: Copyright ¸ 1999 Netpi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved background relating to gold stocks which suggests that a substantial rally is at hand. Sentiment is atrocious with even this board now evidencing the same sort of despair that has characterised many other bottoms. One would expect to find bullish sentiment on a site such as this and in such a case one would not consider such bullish sentiment to be bearish in as much as most of the posters here are by nature gold bulls. Negative sentiment at such a site is definitely bullish for the same reasons. Outside of this site, anyone you speak with about gold looks at you as if you are from another planet, these same individuals being the ones willing to buy all the garbage paper Wall Street can throw at them. And they think that WE are from another planet. Apart from sentiment, anyone following the tape of the major gold stocks will have noted persistent accumlulation, not odd lotters but purchases in size on the ask. Technically, the last major move ( of duration ) in the XAU was in 1993. Check the charts. I am not talking about 2 week wonder moves that were only suitable for trading but moves of duration in connection with which position traders were safe holding for months and reaping substantial profits. There is a time for everything and the 7 year cycle is now. The XAU has been outperforming the POG for the last couple of days, a key indicator that while not infallible, has an excellent record of forecasting major upmoves in gold stocks. We have had daily MACD buy signals for the 4 major golds, NEM, ABX, PDG and HM which incidentally closed at the high for the day. This has occurred during the last couple of days during which the price of gold was under pressure. There is considerable angst among gold investors relating to the upcoming auction such that it would not be unreasonable for gold stocks to be going down. The fact they are not says something. There is an old rule of thumb that suggests that stocks that don't go down on bad news ( declining gold price, upcoming auction, poor sentiment ) should be bought. Aside from all of the above, we cannot rule out the simple fact that virtually no attention is being paid to gold stocks ( except by the smart money that is accumlulating in size ) as money rushes first to the Nasdaq and then, as in the last couple of days, to the supposed bargains in the Dow and S&P. Now I said myself yesterday that the correction in these indexes was over and today's action seems to confirm that although the rapid rise has already moved into overbought territory and close to weekly trendlines which are apt to offer stiff resistance but regardless, if you see what you perceive to be beautiful woman walking past an old hag, to which one would your attention be drawn. In order for the move in gold stocks to get underway in earnest, we need a catalyst to get things going and once that happens, I am certain that attention will be very swiftly directed to gold stocks. This mania that we are currently in will ultimately work to our advantage if for no other reason than the fact there is a legion of morons, with cash, that will blindly chase and bid up the hot sectors and when gold becomes hot, it will quickly turn gold stocks into the next mania. The catalyst will be a sudden upward move in gold stocks likely coupled with more weakness in the Nasdaq or perhaps even in the Dow and S&P if they can't clear resistance waiting at the weekly trendlines that are still pointing down. Whatever, once the move begins, it will be golden. I am not talking through my hat as I have today increased positions in NEM, PDG, ABX, ASA, AU, GOLD and HGMCY. My gut feeling told me today to give up on gold stocks and I know from trading gold stocks for over 20 years that when I feel like puking them out, it is time to buy. It is always harder to buy when it FEELS like you should be selling but emotions in investing are ALWAYS wrong. I am willing to put my money where my mouth is and don't mind being on record as having done so. Time will tell if I am right. Long suffering gold bugs, prepare for blast off.