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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (43370)	3/16/2000 4:54:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Respond to of 99985

From Dow Jones Newswires: One of the biggest options traders on Wall Street, whose very large portfolio heavily favors technology, is almost cheerful about the Nasdaq's decline. He views the Nasdaq's weakness as an opportunity to buy discounted call options on technology stocks. The trader is quick to cut down the talk about the old and new economies. "It's (absurd). I think it's a big unwind of a macro-trade that was long Nasdaq/short S&P, that worked in a big, big way. So what is being done is buying S&P and selling Nasdaq. Once that is done, I think it will be back to the races again," said the trader, who speaks on the condition that he and his firm aren't identified. In simpler terms, the trader said all that happened this week in the market is that a few major hedge funds took profits on huge technology positions following Nasdaq's record close. At the same time, the traders closed an equally vast number of short Standard & Poor's 500 securities that were sold to buy the Nasdaq positions.. The trader, whose clients include some of the biggest hedge funds in America, said word spread on Wall Street that these major funds were closing the long Nasdaq/short S&P trade. As word spread, other traders tried to ride the big hedge fund's coat tails. "Other hedge funds, and then regular, plain mutual funds jumped in. They don't want to miss the bounce in the old-economy value stocks that have been so depressed," the trader said. "Keep in mind only a few sectors can accept so much money: drugs, banks - you can't buy cyclicals. If all the money shifted out of tech, you couldn't buy enough cyclicals."

To: fedhead who wrote (43370)	3/16/2000 4:59:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Anindo, just curious: Is CSCO actually paying you to say this "ÿThe financials are actingÿ well.ÿ ÿOil prices will go down , that will give a bounce to ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the dow jones transport.ÿ Greenspan probably hikes twice fromÿ here.ÿ The NASDAQ consolidates these gains over the next few monthsÿ (I don't think it will go below 3700).ÿ Then up and way we go.ÿ I think Greenspan will succeed in achieving a soft landing." or is this all original thinking on your part? ( I am always looking for original thinking ), cheers TA ----------------------------------------- Message #43370 from Anindo Majumdar Member 304837 at Mar 16 2000 4:50PM I think the market broadens out. The financials are acting well. Oil prices will go down , that will give a bounce to the dow jones transport. Greenspan probably hikes twice from here. The NASDAQ consolidates these gains over the next few months (I don't think it will go below 3700). Then up and way we go. I think Greenspan will succeed in achieving a soft landing. For what its worth at today's low I was down 33 % from Friday's high. Scary. Thanks Anindo

To: fedhead who wrote (43370)	3/16/2000 5:20:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Anindo, i'm frankly not sure what to think. that said i bought a basket of value stocks right at the open in expectation of a continued move higher(this is the list:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13216960). i think however that Greenspan will hike a lot more. producer price inflation at 12% annualized (it is complete nonsense to exclude energy, which ripples through the whole economy) is nothing to sneeze at. if anything the last two days have convinced me that he will begin to get a lot less gradual... btw, raw materials inflation is at its highest since 1974. in any case, what counts is how the market reacts, and it's obviously like a freight train right now... lots of short covering as well. regards, hb