Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (62323)	3/17/2000 7:52:00 AM
From: Filbert	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

In on UFAB at $7.50.

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (62323)	3/17/2000 9:29:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Post Patrol ? re: <its amazing how many of you come out of the woodwork when the OSX is up> Talk about a Sybil - 180 degree spin (VBG) ? Cliffie; you used to be the ultimate OSX Perma-bull, what happened ? Actually; some of us have been preaching trading the trading range and to sell & take profits on all of these little euphoric tops to these waves. That link to Matt Simmons site was super ! A lot of his fundamental thesis is exactly what most of the posters here had concluded months ago. 1. The nature of the trading range - ie: now OSX 95-125 - of which I think is right on. ... I've pounded the table that many of the mo-mo fav's had gotten way ahead of the valuation multiples compared to where they were on the last boom cycle. Simmons addressed that as well - saying the entire market's multiple had gotten richer & expanded etc - great stuff from Simmons. 2. The nature of the cyle and how the various subsectors move - ie: early workover, land & shallow water co's - like BJS SII the land & GOM jack up drillers - to small caps - all the way to the fab & boats being the last subsector to move. ...actually that is why I would go long FGH the moment it settles after their long awaited earnings loss report. Sadly those who have held FGH from day one here; have missed some great opportunties to profit in other sectors. Not to rub salt in their wounds; but the ONE LESSON that everyone who is an investor, or trader in the Oilpatch MUST learn is how Simmons explained the subsector rollout and how it has a pretty defineable history of appreciation and expansion. Hopefully this coming earnings loss release from FGH will finally clear the air - allow the Institutional reaction - then allow us to re- enter with some institutional momenteum as the market has allready told us that the fab's & boats are next to close the gap. I simply dont think that FGH can rally before all the laundry is hung out on the line... Great stuff on that Simmons link - a must read for everyone here and great stuff for anyone who just "rotated" over to the sector. I still love "Margining a Major-Mini Major/Integrated" as my risk vs. reward play. Good day to be in "P" - Phillips Petroleum, or VRI, or ARCO of late. Stocks like UCL are still dirt cheap and have near " 50% to margined doubles" in merely returning to former trading ranges. These stocks have the fundamentals to break out to new highs - which is nearly 50% to "Doubles" on the upside across the board here. Obviously there will be mo-mo moves in SII BJS ESV still, but the real upside %-wise is still in the E&P side and service small caps. Driller-wise, DO remains a bit of a laggard, but FLC is the one with the greatest capacity to bring upside EPS earnings estimates revisions. When all those cold stacked rigs hit the market at peak cycle dayrates - FLC's bottom line will explode like a coiled spring - FLC is THE OSX component to buy the hell out of here imho. I had felt like I missed the drillers - only had a moderate position from the pre-breakout move of late; but I got a chance here to really load up - and FLC & GLM looked really cheap with lots of upside just back to prior resistance. FLC will be the largest % upside returner in the OSX in my opinion over the next 18 mos and will allways be the benefactor of the individual investor/daytrader rotation move when that arrives - FLC is going to knock the socks off people before year end imho - I see $30-$35 for a near double, compared to the OSX itself having perhaps 35% - maybe 45% max upside thru year end. FLC has the "potential" to nearly outperform the OSX by a 1:5 to 1, or 2:1 basis. I am loaded in boring names like TX P UCL COC.b MRO KMG UPR BSNX BR among others. OSX-wise; my main positions are RIG FLC GLM and PGO - that I bought heavilly here of late - this is the laggard value today folks - sees $26-$30 by year end easilly imo. Load the boat on PGO ! - analysts will start trumpeting their "technology" angle to their cutting edge deepwater seismic - which is a mid - to late cycle mo-mo fav's and the FPSO angle has yet to really receive the wind at its back - that it will. PGO could move $6-$8 upon a single analyst article trumpeting the benefit & impact on PGO if the GOM allows FPSO's etc... PGO is allready studying new FPSO designs specifically for the GOM if/when approved and this latest Oil Crisis and a possible Oil-friendly Bush Presidency could change all the offshore California restrictions & the over all regulatory atmosphere in restricting the Oil Industry. We are in some exciting times here folks - it's just about ready to become a "fast break" game here; and the 2nd tier companies & the E&P side is going to lead the pack. Agree on the laggard lists of NR SESI TMAR IO - IIR had its move didnt it ! I allmost got tempted to trade SEI on this pullback - intrigues me; but I have promised myself NOT to bother with controversial stocks like MDR FGH SEI here - too many clean no brainers without "issues"... surely, these could be huge movers - but, why bother here in this environment ? PS - so who is in charge of the SI Strictly Drilling OSX - Boom 2000 Rig Party ? - people; we have to have one... Maybe at OSX 140 ? I still say "Vegas" is the place to have it. - and I still have first dibs on the seat next to Sluggo...