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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian P. who wrote (7799)	3/17/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: Lee	Respond to of 24042

Hi Brian,..Re:.Isn't it possible that the widely held anticipation that JDSU will be the DELL of the coming decade (or even surpass that performance) is already to some extent priced into the stock? Yep, anything's possible. <g> That's why we diversify. However, if we wanted to make a valid point about valuation, (or cheap), wouldn't we compare two stocks with similar growth rates? cheers, Lee happily long JDSU! (and a few 'value'? stocks too) <g>

To: Brian P. who wrote (7799)	3/17/2000 11:55:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

You've answered your own question. Jdsu is projecting growth well ahead of Dell's best rate for many years. Furthermore, Jdsu will have margins far in excess of anything Dell had. As far as Jdsu outperforming Dell's 90's performance in the 2000's; there is no way that is going to happen. It can't rise that much. Jdsu's pe is probably too high for it double every year for even 5 years. As you are suggesting,I would factor in a severe pe contraction over the next 5 years. However, when a company is growing this fast, a big pe contraction still allows 50-80% multi-year compounding stock price growth. If the pe drop doesn't happen, great.