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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (8290)	3/17/2000 6:51:00 PM
From: Q.	Respond to of 10921

I don't think I would describe KLIC's chart as a fire sale. The price is still well above the all-time high set in January. Also, consider the valuation. This stock has traditionally sported a p/e between 10 and 40. yahoo.marketguide.com The present p/e is well within that range, at approximately 22 based on analyst estimates of eps for the FY ending in September. biz.yahoo.com Looking at the chart and at the price multiple, I would say that a price below 40 might be described as a fire sale. I'm not saying that the current price is too high, or that you shouldn't buy KLIC now, but simply that one shouldn't exaggerate the impact of relatively small stock price movements in this highly volatile and cyclical sector.

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (8290)	3/17/2000 11:37:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Your characterization of KLIC's valuation as a 'fire sale' is very much on the mark. Consider the following data taken directly from First Call (based on today's closing): Here are the implied PEs of some randomly selected semi equipment companies using the most current FY00 and FY01 estimates - (symbol, implied PE for FY00/implied PE for FY01) AMAT 43/33 CMOS 33/26 LRCX 38/30 LTXX 54/27 MTSN 51/26 NVLS 34/27 PRIA 77/39 TER 37/31 For KLIC 21/13 The average implied PE is 43 for FY00 and 28 for FY01. Thus Klic is trading at a 50+% discount to its peers. I recall reading countless arguments (technical, historical, bonder-related, etc.) that were presented in August of last year to justify Klic's low valuation at THAT time. Since then Klic has gained ~250% and performed in the top quartile of the group. Obviously quite a few astute investors recognized the value of Klic then and didn't accept any lame explanations for why it should be discounted versus its peers. The company recently announced a 35% increase in bonder production, a 10 year licensing agreement for FCT with Amkor, and indicated their new Singapore plant (which effectively significantly increases the margins on the 8028 bonder) is ramping up much faster than expected. The CEO just had a very positive CC with analysts. There have been 2 or 3 analyst upgrades in the last 48 hours and a couple of additional earnings estimate increases. Not only is there every reason to believe that Klic will grow at the same rate as the semi-equipment sector as a whole, but there are a score of reasons to believe the company's earnings will grow FASTER than most of its peers. In short, Klic could reasonably DOUBLE from its current price and STILL be reasonably priced. I'm sure there were quite a number of gullible investors last fall who believed the justifications presented for Klic's low valuation. They missed a 3-4 bagger (thus far) as a result. I suggest all investors who read the explanations given for why KLIC is not an incredible fire sale right now to seriously question the rationale. This is deja vu all over again: Klic was ridiculously undervalued in August and subsequently soared. It is ridiculously undervalued now. The title of this thread says it all.