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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (78052)	3/17/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Wall Street sez: no excessive supply is coming online, plus RDRAM's success will sap capacity growth; therefore, as the Merrill analyst headlined his latest report, "the crunch is coming!" (strong demand is guaranteed). Plus, Micron has been telling analysts that their costs are down plenty. And they announce Tuesday, surely with plenty of optimism and maybe a few profits. Naturally, the fact that the stock is trading at twenty or thirty times the best-case cycle-high EPS is immaterial; if INTC can be worth sixty times earnings, as overpaid wag recently opined, surely MU is worth forty times optimism. -mb

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (78052)	3/17/2000 2:57:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne, I believe we are at day 13. mike

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (78052)	3/17/2000 7:55:00 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Wayne: Yes, this MU run-up is insane, particularly given the falling memory prices. I'm not normally vindictive, but I will shed no tears for the sheep who buy this stock at current levels based on an acceptance of the sordid stories of Wall Street. For Steve and the other RMBS bulls, a quote from the Merrill report on MU (thanks Steve P. for the forward on this one). I don't mind seeing bulls earn profits as a result of calling the timing, and/or riding the momentum on this stock but would prefer to be spared the baloney that there are any fundamentals supporting this Intel scam. I am delighted that the Merrill analyst saw fit to outline some of the points that I made in an article on RMBS of a few weeks ago. A section from Merrill's recent report on MU: (I eliminated the pimpery on MU itself to reduce nausea reactions. The only part of the piece that did not reek of "schmoozery" was the reference to MU's upcoming problems at 15 um which we have discussed here before). "Several days with DRAM manufacturers also left us with little understanding of the current optimism surrounding Rambus. We know of no memory maker that is seeing less than a 30% die size premium on 128 megabit Rambus parts as compared to synchronous memory - extra testing and royalty costs have to be added to that. In a tight memory market of the kind we expect to see in the second half of the year, the only way that DRAM makers will manufacture and sell RDRAM is if they're compensated for the extra cost. At the 700/800 megahertz MPU speed grades that we expect to see dominating the market in the latter half of the year, there is little evidence that RDRAM offers much performance premium over synchronous memory that would justify the extra cost. We would be surprised to see RDRAM exceed 10% of the total market in the latter half of 2000. We also think that the next-generation memory consortium represents a clear rebellion against RDRAM specifically, and the royalty-based model in general. Intel's comments to the contrary, we do not expect to see Rambus granted any significant role in that consortium." (J. Osha) Best, Earlie