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To: long-gone who wrote (50490)	3/17/2000 4:18:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Richard, TSM ( Taiwan Semiconductor) was up over 8% today and close to 20% the last 2 days. So, I don't think investors or traders are concerned about a war developing in Taiwan any time soon.

To: long-gone who wrote (50490)	3/19/2000 9:08:00 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116796

Thot you might find this post "Chen Wins" business editorial of interest in your efforts to illuminate goldbugs to the potential for POG bending action dead ahead. Taiwan's Election Earthquake May Provide Buying Opportunity By Philip Segal Senior Asian Correspondent 3/18/00 10:03 PM ET URL:http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/903204.html HONG KONG -- A political earthquake rocked East Asia on Saturday, and when politics changes this profoundly overnight, it's hard to see how the economy and markets can escape unaffected. It's also hard to see any market fallout as anything but a buying opportunity for smart investors. As with real earthquakes, the big tremor -- the win in Taiwan's presidential election by a party favoring official independence from China -- should be followed by aftershocks. Those could include rumblings of military action by China, and the consequent jitters in the markets of Taiwan and Hong Kong which can accompany talk of war. Initially, the Taiwan market could fall sharply. After all, Chen Shui-bien of the Democratic Progressive Party won with 39% of the vote, which means that more than 60% of Taiwanese could buy the argument that China's anger at his win will increase the likelihood of war. But there are a few things worth remembering if you read in the coming days dark warnings from Beijing about having to take Taiwan back by force. Most importantly, for the moment it can't be done. Beijing knows this, which is why Taiwan's electoral verdict leaves the Communist regime so bitter with rage. Its statements after the election were measured, but in the week before the election, China had said that Taiwan voters were choosing "war or peace," and warned them off voting for Chen. Chen has promised not to declare independence unilaterally, nor to hold a referendum on independence. In this way, his approach to China is little different from that of his predecessor, Li Teng-hui. This is not Hong Kong, where China held all the cards against a toothless Britain as the two negotiated the 1997 handover. Hong Kong had no army to speak of, and depended on China for most of its food and water. Taiwan is different: it has American F-16 fighter jets and a promise by the U.S. to come to its defense if invaded. Even without the Americans, China's capacity to stage an amphibious landing and take Taiwan is strongly in doubt. All of this means that even if the stock market should plunge on Monday -- Taiwan's investors are panicky, and retail buying constitutes the vast bulk of market trading -- good technology companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing will continue to beat all comers as they export to the rest of the world. Longer term, as pointed out on March 16, Chen could start breaking up the current ruling Nationalist Party's $20 billion business empire. That would free up a lot of banking and old economy assets currently coddled and protected by the government, but which could soon be thrown to the wolves. As for Hong Kong's market, it could get dragged into a war of words too. In order to put pressure on China, a Taiwan official once speculated on the possibility that if China lobbed missiles Taiwan's way, Taiwan could close down the Hong Kong market by landing one off the shore of China's major financial center. He later said he was joking, but the message was clear. " ******** My commentary... It's another case of not so much what we think about this matter as what those infected and inflicted with this new/old clash think, and how it will be reflected in the HK Hang Seng on Monday "over there." However, I find it fascinating that this potential ripple in the water coupled with George Cole reported rumors of Anglo taking down dang near the whole BOE auction on Tuesda to be of NON-coincidental. What got me in that George Cole referenced piece was that even if Anglo bot the "whoooooooooooole thang" Tuesday, it would barely make a dent in their hedgebook "problem"... Now THAT is a scarey stat...that is if I were short gold<g> Probably not nearly as scarey as dougak's current brush with the toothless GATA tiger who is doing all this gratis work and threatening peons like him through third parties like barrick insider aka the enemya. Either Bill Murphy hasn't got a pot to pi&& in or he's using GATA money to fly to funerals. Either way, he's too toothless to care about little ole dougak whom he writes off as an advertising expense. how many $99 subscriptions did ole bill burn up walking up to the counter and buying a round trip ticket to his GATA founder's funeral. Anyone wanna bet he found a way to charge that off to GATA because the guy was a member or bill was going to mention GATA at the wake, making it a "legit biz trip?" Gimme a break!!! Doug is small taters and everyone here knows it. And for Double D to try to make himself look bigger by squashing Doug is only slightly sadder than a flattened, overfed schnauzer under the wheels of a city sanitation truck, lower east side. Regards