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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fabeyes who wrote (50841)	3/17/2000 5:10:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 53903

--Fabeyes After a 3 day blip at the end of February that pushed 64 Meg PC 100 SDRAM from its recent low Average Selling Price of $4.70 to its recent high of $6.46, SDRAM resumed its price erosion to today's ASP of $5.28, an 18% decline in the last 12 days--more than 1% per day. I don't read that as firming demand. I would read it as firming demand if someone let me underwrite MU's next debt issue. Best --Steve

To: Fabeyes who wrote (50841)	3/17/2000 11:18:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Respond to of 53903

Memory Sizzle March 17, 2000 SEMICONDUCTORS Richard L. Whittington (415) 627-2786; Industry Overview rwhittington@bofasecurities.com DJIA: 10678 S&P 500: 1470 Investors have it twisted around. The way to play memory this cycle is Flash and SRAMs. That's where the sizzle's at. DRAM demand is certainly strong and will likely get a seasonal boost again this summer, but the secular story is rapidly rising Flash and SRAM content per cell phone. The big beneficiaries of the as yet unappreciated Flash and SRAM macro-trend are: AMD (AMD, $50.06, Strong Buy), Atmel (ATML, $50.06, Strong Buy){1}, Cypress (CY, $44.63, Strong Buy) and Integrated Device Technology (IDTI, $39.75, Strong Buy){1}, each rated Strong Buy. ISSI (ISSI, $25.38, Buy){1}, rated Buy, is similarly poised to benefit. Price targets are no object, so robust is the earnings power these companies' possess for the next several years. * Much like the GUI (graphical user interface) demand-pull of Windows 3.x, 95 and 98 throughout the early-mid 1990s, vast increases in feature content such as data and color screens are boosting cell phone chip requirements. * DRAM use per PC (not servers), on the other hand, is rising when the cost per bit is right, and much less from performance-pull as occurred last cycle. * Flash and SRAM content per system unit are going up nearly regardless of price. This is a critical distinction and the key to vastly improved profit margins for leading Flash and SRAM producers. Of course, there is a bull story for DRAMs: PCs and servers sell like crazy in response to high speed Internet access demand and, at the same time, major DRAM maker Samsung diverts scarce capacity to SRAMs and Flash. We're certainly sympathetic to Micron's low cost and performance leading attributes but feel these are now well known. On the other hand, leading Flash and SRAM producers AMD, ATML, CY and IDTI are still given short shrift by the investment community and have yet to produce the banner profits we think very likely in store for the next two or three years. Relative to expectation, we believe this is the area in which memory-oriented investors should concentrate. Demand for Flash and SRAM is surpassing all expectation: Sony, for example, is readying an array of internet access platforms which they believe will soak up 15% of the world's Flash supply in 2001 - this from low single digits this year. This means they will be bumping heads with the likes of Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola all through the year trying to secure sources of supply. Unlike these cell phone makers, Sony has few long-term arrangements on which to fall back and will have to pay the market-clearing price. This is what occurred in DRAMs last cycle, when large OEMs had to brute force their way with suppliers, holding DRAM prices stable for 3 straight years - a period in which falling producer costs translated into banner profits for the premier producers. Recent industry reports indicate that large Flash and SRAM suppliers are now de-committing to tier one OEMs as the former find they've badly underestimated demand for the next two years. Significant ongoing shortages are now contemplated in these markets at least through the end of next year. Since producers have yet to materially scale up their capital equipment orders, not even placing needed upsides into the que yet, it is our conclusion that these memory markets will remain tight, see higher mix ASPs and generate banner profits well into 2002. ragingbull.com

To: Fabeyes who wrote (50841)	3/18/2000 10:31:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

fabs, you forgot #7. "that depends on what you mean by 'tight.'" ;-) maybe the supply of functional, non sleepy dram is "tight" ;-) but remember this, if nothing else... DEMAND FOR DRAM CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ho ho ho ho ho!!!!!!!!!!!!!