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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (98847)	3/17/2000 6:36:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1571939

Cirruslvr, <I see 2-way as important because what Tench said earlier made sense - AMD can't just jump into the server market with 4 and 8 way Athlon systems, they have to get started with 2 way (and even single CPU) systems and hopefully it will grow from there. But none of this happens until the 760 and 770 chipsets come out later this year. Of course, we know how much money 2MB Xeons bring in. It would be nice if AMD eventually got some of that action.> I agree with this line of thinking. I was just talking about relative importance to the bottom line. Strategically speaking the biggest issue in front of AMD is getting decent business customer penetration before Wilamette kicks in. Once the foothold is established, AMD would be much less susceptible to future segmentation strategies from Intel. <The PII mobile chip came out on the next smaller process after the PII came out (.35 -> .25), Athlon will be the same way (.25 -> .18 (.15?) ), so Northwood will probably also be the same way. But weren't you saying Intel may have a bit of .13 capacity this year? Still, when an Athlon mobile comes out its competiton will probably be mobile Cumine, but MHz will hopefully be different (read: higher). Like always, all this depends on AMD's execution which happens to have been stellar with the Athlon so far. But Dresden still has to prove itself.> I think it is not just a process issue but an overall ramp issue - the current Wilamette schedule is aggressive. I expect Intel to be fully focussed on getting the desktop parts out first. Laptops will come but slowly. PIII got an early start and rules today. AMD will do very well in this segment for the next 12 months. Intel will keep pushing PIIIs to reduce any serious market share gains from AMD in the mean time. By then we should see some Wilamette laptop SKUs kicking in. <Lets first watch and see if AMD gets into commercial Compaq notebooks, and then into IBM's Thinkpads which have always been Intel only. Intel will woo Dell with more foils so who knows if he will ever switch over. > Agreed. <But as you have basically said, if Dell ever starts using AMD products it will probably be mobile Athlons.> I don't think AMD salesmen will be giving up so easy on the desktop side. Gateway and Compaq are going to be putting tremendous pressure on Dell with higher speed Thunderbirds in Q2. Can Dell afford to go into the all important second half looking into lower MHz and shitty benchmarks? Dell may decide to wait for Wilamette but then again they may not given how the CuMine launch went. Chuck