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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jttmab who wrote (43512)	3/18/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

jttmab, thanks for the elaborate answer. It is true that this medium is limited in having a detailed discussion about the issue of free markets and their definition. Yes OPEC is a group of oil producers trying to fix influence oil prices but so is Intel who controls 80% or 90% of the PC processor market for which thousand of programs were written. The modern economies can not work today without a PC So in this respect there are similarities between OPEC and Intel. The US from what I know is the biggest corn exporter in the world - again similarities with OPEC and the floor prices set to corn due to the subsidies for "set idle" fertile land to keep grain prices above a certain price level. My point is that nobody wanted to intervene wen oil prices dropped to unreasonable low levels and Mr. Schumer or Mr. Clinton did not suggested to fill the national oil reserves to support reasonable oil prices. Many economies who relay on oil such as Russia for example had very bad crisis and many many people suffered extreme hardship. If not for oil prices collapse maybe (and again maybe) lives of many Russian (mostly the poor ones) would have been saved. My point is mostly targeted to the hypocrasy of this administration and it does not relate only to present oil prices. Oil prices after all are more or less in line with the true rate of inflation. $20 a barrel 10 years ago are about $30 today. Has any one calculate the price of finished steel recently? or of an apartment in NYC? well they are more than double since 1993 ....so why not oil???. The misguided US policy in a effort to shore up the plundered Social Security decided to adopt a strong dollar policy and made changes in the way the CPI is calculated. The losers are those who contributed a life time to the US economy and paid toward their retirement. By misreporting the actual inflation not only can this administration go away with the loot from the Social Security and depriving the elderly of their rightfull Social Security payment but also scores of pension plans are screwing their members by underpaying the pension to those entilted to. My point being that instead to harras oil producers this administration should report the proper inflation numbers and then oil prices on a relative basis will not be so high after all. If the dollar and gold would be left to float freely much of the economic hardship in many countries would be substantialy eased as many comodities and national debt is quoted in dollars. I will stop for now BWDIK Haim BTW interesting quotes source Bloomberg, not that I like Ahyatolas but US policy is repeatedly wrong!!! Washington, March 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lifted some trade sanctions on Iran and will pursue talks on returning Iranian assets still frozen since the embassy hostage crisis of 1979, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said. Albright, in a gesture to reformers who swept parliamentary elections in Iran one month ago, said the U.S. would allow imports of fruits, nuts, caviar and carpets from Iran. The U.S. also will work toward a ``global settlement' of outstanding legal claims each country has against the other, going beyond simply handing back frozen assets, she said. The actions are ``designed to show the millions of Iranian craftsmen, farmers and fishermen who work in these industries, and the Iranian people as a whole, that the United States bears them no ill will,' Albright told the American Iranian Council at its Conference on American-Iranian Relations. ......... Albright expressed regret for the ``shortsighted' U.S. support of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. She also acknowledged that the U.S. role in the 1953 coup that toppled Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh was ``clearly a setback for Iran's political development.' ``It is easy to see now why many Iranians continue to resent this intervention by America in their internal affairs,' Albright said. .............

To: jttmab who wrote (43512)	3/19/2000 12:34:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

jttmab, thanks for the PM. I am leaving NYC today so I will try to be short and respond to the Dollar issue. The conversion level of a currency is gravitating towards the relative level of short term interest rates and the level of inflation in that country. The accepted spread between inflation and interest rates is around 2.5% to 3%. So if inflation in the US is as reported 2.7% and FED funds of 5.75% we are in the right valuation e.g. dollar index of around 100 to 105 on a relative nasis to interest rates on other currencies. But due to the misreporting that occurs in the US the real inflation IMHO is closer to 4% to 5% for the last several months, which will bring the spread 2% to 2.5% lower than it's natural balance. Therefore taking into account the multiplier effect - e.g higher inflation results in lower dollar which by itself will drive inflation higher ..... so IMHO the dollar should trade about 10% lower or around 85 to 95. This relative steep adjustment will trigger capital flow out of US assets including the stock market which will trigger a severe bear market which in turn will put the US economy into recession and lower substantial the inflation rate. So the free market mechanism will adjust the dollar rate and also substantial cut in the trade deficit. This transition will help the US to be a more productive country and we will produce and export more products and services and not worthless paper. This will be a healthy development in the long run but this administration is interested in quick fixes which will delay the inevitable. As an unattended disease so an unattended economic problem grows worse with time and that is my major disagreement in the way that the present administration runs this policy - for quick political gains and damaging the manufacturing and services infrastructure. One clear example would be the present scarcity of scientist, engineers and Post Doctorate in the non liberal arts or business related studies which is a critical ingredient in future progress and development of a modern economy. BWDIK Haim