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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (10947)	3/18/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: David Wiggins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Tero, I hate to say it, being long, but I 've got to agree that most investors/institutions and those who follow this at all probably feel similar feelings to what you expressed. Not to say RS doesn't have some valid points - it's just that when people see specific facts presented as 'done deals' turn out to be untrue (to put it kindly) they kinda remember that. Trust is gone. The deception took place right up till the time the secondary was placed. People really HATE the feeling of being misled and then 'ripped-off'. From here on out there will be no benefit of doubt for Globalstar - quite the opposite, I'm afraid. Regards, Dave

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (10947)	3/18/2000 6:57:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Tero: Since you are an expert on handsets, inter alia, could you bring us up to date on Ericsson's G* phone situation. Very little news on this seems available, but you probably know as much as anyone. Has European approval been granted at last for their use in Europe? Are the phones rolling off the production line at last, and if so at what rate now and when will full production be possible (and at what rate?)? Will Ericsson switch to smaller less bulky phones, and if so when? Thanks. Best. Chaz

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (10947)	3/18/2000 9:57:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Respond to of 29987

<<How do you assess what the management is saying now? Should you assume that "a lot" of what they're saying is actually true - how much would that be? 30%? 60%?>> A 50% rule seems to correlate pretty well with actual experience: 1. Last April, mgmt said there'd be 38 GWs installed by mid 2000; looks like there'll be about 19 2. Last September, they said 16 GWs by 12/31/99; there were eight. 3. In October, BLS said 1M subs by y/e 2000; we'll be lucky to have 500K 4. In January, the company's prospectus forecasted 72 countries in billable service by 3/31; now it looks like about 36 5. In the last cc, BLS projected 300M$ in revenues this year; a more reasonable guess would be 150M$. OK, this track record, taken by itself, doesn't reflect much credit on management; but of course, it's only part of the story. Let's recall the rest of the story: 1. In 1999, the Schwartz-led team accomplished the unprecedented feat of deploying 40 spacecraft without a single failure, while successfully raising capital in the face of an Iridium-poisoned equity & debt market. 2. The system, including spacecraft, user terminals and gateways has proven to provide high quality quality service, is easy to use, and significantly cheaper than both the predecessor GEO systems and Iridium. 3. When ramping up from zero, immaterial schedule delays can make a big apparent difference in the value of the 'Y' axis, but this difference can be completely irrelevant to the ultimate success of the business. Is G* half as valuable a business if, for example, it's only shipped 50K phones instead of the forecasted 100K, when the difference is only 1-2 months of schedule (in a project which is nearly ten years old and plans to operate for at least the next twenty?) 4. In accordance with the long-ago-disclosed business plan, G* management has little direct influence on the speed of Gateway deployment, let alone on regulatory matters inside a foreign Service Providers territory. This approach brought investment partners and marketing experts, but at the price of some undeniable loss of direct management control. 5. BLS is an optimist, or he wouldn't be in this business. He's also a pretty good spin doctor...or G* long ago have joined the two IRID/ICO in bankruptcy court. I suppose the unvarnished truth immediately post Zenit was something like this: well, we're in a bit of a bind because even though we have the intention and think we can find the money to build and launch the rest of the constellation, our service providers and user terminal manufacturers are going to do the barest minimum until they see the birds actually in space and proven to work better than Iridium. This isn't the kind of story that would have brought in new financing on decent terms....so BLS spun the truth and got us to the point we're at....not a bad position, really; certainly not compared to our (former) peers. So, on the whole, I think G* management deserves a pretty high grade....