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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (38381)	3/18/2000 7:23:00 PM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 93625

Zeev, you are a great trader. Me, I am lousy. So I try to focus on 18 month to 2 year earnings projections and fit my buys, holds and sells into those projections, adjusting for any change in the story which created the buy in the first place. I first bought Rambus in Feb. of 98 at 48 assuming we could get to $2.00/sh by 9/01. That would have justified the then 250 P/E and I would have then determined if future growth was in the cards. If not, my plan was to exit, at least in part. I hung on through 10/99, buying as I went....didn't buy but didn't sell through the 820 debacle. Finally when the stock went dead for months I eased out of 2/3 of my position in December and January. Dumb in restrospect, but at least I didn't move it all (the proceeds went to JDSU and CREE, so not so bad). Now I am still playing with my eighteen month to 2 year earnings projections. I can still see $3.00/sh by 9/01 with some comfort and, if the PC penetration ramps up better than I expect, the patent lawsuit works out or there is some unknown good news which works into the earnings picture, $5.00/sh is doable. From there it is possible to see $8.00 - $12.00 by 0/02. So, I am hanging on, afraid to sell any more because that 60 point turnaround day will catch me for sure! And, hey, I can wait eighteen months for the possibility of a 1200% earnings upturn. I do believe you have been consistent in your outlook on Rambus, based on its then-existing price/momentum characteristics. It takes all kinds to make a market and I appreciate all you bring to this thread. One other thing I still want to see...and it could affect my outlook. I want to see some mass-produced DDR, working effectively in a commercial product. That, to me, will be an interesting moment. I have not seen it yet.