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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (20628)	3/18/2000 9:30:00 PM
From: wopr1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

That is why I have only suggested watching carefully Thanks for the response on my post#20629. I agree that CSCO can be nimble, and as an owner, I expect (hope) they will be a force in the optical market. From my new GG's perspective, it seems that we (I) have a unique opportunity to watch the birth of a new tornado. So, I am trying to figure out the right questions to ask now, in order to watch the "game" unfold. Since I don't think anyone questions that the all-optical solution will tornado, what does the thread think about these issues? 1) TIME FRAME: When should we expect to see 100% growth rates on earnings? It seems that NT hopes to have a optical switch in commercial production by the end of 2001. Does this sound right? Timeframe seems important if the optical switch is discontinuous. 2) STANDARDS: The two companies (NT and Agilent) seem to have different methods to produce a similar product. I wonder which standard, if any, will dominate. Does anyone know if either method has some performance advantage? Will the optical switch have to conform to existing standards (like JDSU), or will one of these methods become an open proprietary standard? 3) IMPACT: We have spent the most time on this issue. Consensus seems to be that the optical switch is discontinuous for CSCO. 4)WHICH BASKET: How are people going to play this. Buying a basket of stocks in this field seems hard. Specifically, none of the major players are a "pure" optical switch play. For example, we are finding it difficult to determine whether JDSU is really a king, given that NT and LU dont break down their sales. Do we wait for a winner, and then pile in? As I said, I am not so much concerned with CSCO per se, as I am with learning how to watch the game. Or maybe I am just getting ahead of myself . . . -wopr