Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (20630)	3/18/2000 8:20:00 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Blink and your potential Gorilla is fully priced. Haven't you rather missed the point? If one is playing the real GG, then it doesn't matter if one buys the gorilla after it has already achieved full gorilla status. Those on this thread who are choosing to accept greater risk by buying potential gorillas during or at the start of the tornado are working from the same world view, but they are really playing what one might call the Tornado Game. At the price of extra risk, there are extra returns to be had by choosing this strategy, but it is not the real Gorilla Game, which only requires figuring out who is and is not a Gorilla after they have already achieved that status. And, of course, a few bold folks are even buying companies before they go into a tornado ... I suppose that might be called Bowling for Dollars! Their insights are relevant to this thread since we are all working from the same worldview and choosing investments based on their potential for or achievement of gorilla status, rather than any other criterion, but no amount of market speed up changes the basics on which the Gorilla Game is based, it just makes it harder for those playing these variations to get in at the right time. Likewise, I believe the consensus is that market de-stabilization, while it does produce some overly thrilling short term changes, doesn't really impact a GG investor since GG is intrinsically a long term buy and hold strategy.

To: Boplicity who wrote (20630)	3/18/2000 8:50:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Since I play several games, as a GG acolyte, I'm at best a "backslider". My adoption of GG was pragmatic. In a LTB&H context, it crystallized concepts that I had only dimly perceived. The biggest change that I've noticed has occurred on recent dips. Like many, I keep a list of prospects. On the January dips and the one this last week, I go down the list. The FM has had a profound influence on what I've discarded from that list. At this juncture, I continue to believe the FM has significantly improved my selection abilities. While I understand what you are saying, I hope you don't mind if I reserve judgement on your "new paradigm". It will be interesting to review this conversation at the end of the year, for I believe Mr. Market may have a few surprises for the "latest great new thing" approach sometime in 2000. We both agree that alertness for new technologies is very important. The difference is when do you pony up. As always good luck. lurking... lurqer

To: Boplicity who wrote (20630)	3/19/2000 8:15:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Timing... I believe the G game was better played when the market was control by the institutions anyhow, but as of now, they have lost the market to the retail buyers, and day traders. I see more and more casino like behavior and the time frame reduced to months. Example ELON. 12 to 100 in three month. Blink and your potential Gorilla is fully priced. By the time you all saw it ELON was in it's 40s. Agree and disagree. I think the GG is still an excellent method for comparing Technology stocks, understanding their strengths and weaknesses, and stock selection. But I do agree that the time frame seems to have been shortened. For example, I read Garyx's Hunt report on LHSP, for speech recognition at the beginning of the week, although I had carried it around for days. I finally found some time yesterday to look into the company, and visit the thread. It was hanging around $40-50/share for a while, and then...BOOM.....in early February it takes off on a couple of announcements from Microsoft trying to more tightly incorporate Speech Recognition into Office 2000/2001, and LHSP announcing Speech Recognition into handheld devices.....and now, the market cap has more than doubled since then. www3.techstocks.com I think this field has incredible potential, and unlike pump lasers or commercial heating system operating systems software, can be understood by Joe average consumer (ie, me). Should LHSP become a standard, its application will be widespread (PCs, handhelds, cars, appliances, etc.). But already, before I can even think about investing, it's doubled. I think it is this more compressed time period that is pushing many here and elsewhere to jump in before the tornado......thereby raising risk. A great example of this would be many of Gilder's telecosm picks, which are nowadays instantaneously driven to insane and unreachable multiples.......eg, Xcelera (XLA) which was mentioned a couple months ago, and has moved in share price in the past 52 weeks, from < $1/share to $400 by the beginning of March. For those of us still on the "Day Job" pushing electrical supplies around working like an elephant, it's frustrating to see potential opportunities launched into orbit before we get a chance to do a little DD. BTW, if you go to the LHSP thread, you'll find Gregory Mullineaux bought into the stock immediately prior to the current run-up, based, in part, on reading the charts. How fortuitous that the announcements just happened to occur right afterwards! Congratulations Gregory. Stan borrowed from "WALL STREET", in which Gordon Gekko explains why he doesn't want to drop dead at age 50 like his father, but instead seeks inside information to get ahead.