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To: rsie who wrote (24502)	3/19/2000 10:51:00 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 25960

Here's a response which adds some balance to the Taiwan situation: Message 13235435

To: rsie who wrote (24502)	3/19/2000 10:58:00 AM
From: Dale Knipschield	Respond to of 25960

Hard to say what will happen in Taiwan. Had our illustrious president ever made it clear to China that invasion of Taiwan would bring an IMMEDIATE and ABSOLUTE end to ALL trade with them, I doubt that they would be rattling their sabres, since such a move would bring them to their knees economically. In the absence of such an ultimatum, I see this as one possible scenario: 1. China invades Taiwan 2. US blocks China trade. 3. China retaliates with trade block of all semi-output from Taiwan (1/3 of world output?) 4. Pressure from business leaders leads Clinton to capitulate. (We know who really runs this country! I used to say that our government is for sale. I now know better.......its all sold out already!) 5. Situation back to normal, except China pockets semi revenue and gains more high-tech gear and knowledge. We continue to trade everything with them, giving them the capital to continue to build the world's largest, best equipped army in 5-10 years. 6. Beyond that, watch out! Sorry for the cynicism, but that's how I see it if invasion comes about. My fondest wishes are for a continued stalemate and growth of capitalism in China, which might eventually bring the communist regime down. Regards, Knip