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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saukriver who wrote (20709)	3/19/2000 1:06:00 PM
From: daffydog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike and saukriver, I agree on all points. Who could/would have predicted that MSFT would return almost a fifty-bagger since 1991, given that so many thought that the stock was overpriced then? The internet really is the mother of all networking and the mother of all tornadoes, and I'm inclined to trust Gilder on this one. MGG

To: saukriver who wrote (20709)	3/19/2000 1:54:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: ORCL, MSFT and the Law of Large Numbers Some rambling thoughts: 1. The familiar technology adoption curve has a sharply upward sloping pattern that eventually tapers off as the market demand is satisfied and penetration approaches its limit. 2. Market leaders typically grow share faster than the market itself is growing. 3. A company's market cap potential is limited by the size of their chosen market(s) and their execution. Therefore, tell us the size of the markets a company will dominate in, and we can begin to guess the limits on its exponential growth. It is the size of the market that sets the limits, not the base that the company starts from. It seems to me that this set of realities is the essence of Gorilla Game investing. When a company can repeatedly defy accepted thought that says "you can't keep on growing that fast" you get the outsized returns that astound. You may be saying: "So what? That was obvious. What's your point"? Here it is: MSFT is the gorilla in desktop operating systems. No longer a tornadoing market. ORCL is the gorilla in internal, client-server based databases. No longer a tornadoing market. Internet accessible storage is in a tornado, and the ultimate market size looks huge. Neither company is yet the gorilla of software to store and manage internet generated data. If one of them (or another...NTAP or EMC???) winds up dominating this space, and it is a gorilla game, their market cap will explode to new heights, blasting through the former assumptions about the absolute limits or the limits dictated by the "law of large numbers". So my question to the board: is the software side of data storage for and on the internet likely to be a gorilla game? And who is the likely winner? Brian

To: saukriver who wrote (20709)	3/20/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: BDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Law of Large Numbers <<Is there an easy way to find the market cap for gorillas MSFT and CSCO circa 1991 and the companies with the highest market caps in 1991?>> I looked at the April, 1991, Fortune (the Fortune 500 issue) on microfiche at the library (not everything is on the internet, yet). Membership in the 500 is determined by sales not market cap with GM being #1 with $126 billion sales. Microsoft and Cisco not on the list. (When did CSCO go public?) Ranked by market cap: 1. IBM $75 billion 2. Exxon 69 3. Philip-Morris 62 4. GE 58 5. Merck 41 6. Bristol-Myers Squibb 40 7. Coca-Cola 35 8. Proctor & Gamble 30 9. Johnson&Johnson 30 10.Amoco 27