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To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (24508)	3/19/2000 12:57:00 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

rustam, I think all of your points are very sound. Probably the only thing that could set off a chain of events that could not be controlled, would be a declaration of independence by Taiwan. I doubt this will happen. Otherwise, it makes no sense for China to take military action against Taiwan. A physical attack on Taiwan would result in the collapse of the Chinese economy and virtual isolation from the west. At the same time, they don't have the means to physically occupy the island, so they would pay a huge price and not accomplish very much. For the Taiwanese there isn't much to be gained by declaring independence. They are de facto independent now. Making this official would only cause a crisis and lead to possible widespread destruction and loss of life. The U.S. is in a weird position here. Like almost all countries, it is not ready to say that Taiwan is an independent nation. This sets a precedent that most nations are not ready to endorse. They do not want to open the door to foreign nations supporting or endorsing independence movements inside their borders. This is why the government speaks out of both sides of its mouth. Politically and morally it can't abandon Taiwan. At the same time, it can't write a blank check of support for Taiwan, either. So, it talks about "one China", while warning the mainland Chinese against provocative actions.

To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (24508)	3/20/2000 5:57:00 PM
From: John Cuthbertson	Respond to of 25960

OT: China Rustam, You make the very salient point that China does not actually have the military capability to successfully invade Taiwan. However, I have to disagree with you a bit about Chinese history. You said, "China has been in only one major war in the last god knows how many years: Korean War." Not really so. The major war for the Chinese this century was the Sino-Japanese War that began with the Japanese takeover of Manchuria in 1931 and eventually developed into a major part of World War II. The Chinese didn't start that war, but they were certainly "in" it--millions of Chinese died. This of course was followed almost immediately by the civil war that led to the Communist victory in mainland China in 1949, followed closely by the conquest of Tibet. You might not call Tibet a "major" war, but it shows that the Chinese are not averse to military conquest when they actually have the means. ==John C.