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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (43599)	3/19/2000 5:07:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Stephen a comment to yours and other posts:ÿ - I agree: Alan G. willÿ not raise margin requirements becauseÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ -ÿ he said so many times; if he did , he would look stupid.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ -ÿ he said the reason he won't is because it would only punishÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the little guy because the big guys can always get cash and credit.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ -ÿ if the market crashes as a result of margin reductions ,ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ it will be mostly the little guy to get hurt because he/she can'tÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ handle debt as well as big guys.ÿ ÿÿ - Clearly the DOW Fri disappointed: After " the biggest gain in history !! Thursdayÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ t here was zero follow through on Fri; actually it fell.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Clearly there weren't a lot of happy campers around.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The Nazÿ too didn't join the irrational exuberance : Friday's gain wasÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ nothing to cheer about.ÿ ÿÿ -DOW and Financials record gain Fri wasÿ clearlyÿ contrived.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ -Banks and Financialsÿ always, ultimately fallÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ when interest rates rise. ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ -ÿ It becomes more expensive to borrow so there is lessÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ selling by Banks etc.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ - I am having a hard time seeing " old economy " ( GM ) ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ do better with higher interest rates and oil prices. ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ I am not putting down old economy. I am saying with higher ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ rates we are ALL going down, some more some less; ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ But how do you pick and choose? ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ That's why now I daytrade and stay 100% in cash most of the time. -Ala G has definitely painted himself into a corner by lowering ratesÿ in Oct 98ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to save 3rd world by turning up our economy. Now we are paying the price. -I think next week, tomorrow, DOW and Naz will rangeÿ from anemic to maniacal asÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Institutions try to lure more suckers into Bear Rallies.ÿ ÿÿ - However I think the money " in the know ", all know that the jig for thisÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ bull market is up. We are looking down the barrel of steadilyÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ rising interest rates and you don't want to be standing in frontÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ of the barrel when the final trigger pull crashes the market.ÿ -Many people areÿ starting to head to the doors already and are lookingÿ ÿÿÿ around to see who else is following.ÿ ÿÿÿ Eventually theÿ trickle to the doorÿ will turn into a flood and thenÿ ÿÿÿ I am afraidÿ ÿÿ ÿÿÿ SOS/b>ÿ ÿÿ God Save Our Souls ÿ ÿÿ JMHOÿ ÿÿ TA ,ÿÿÿÿÿÿ back laterÿ ÿÿ ÿÿ ================================================ÿ ÿÿ ÿÿ Message #43599 from Stephen at Mar 19 2000 2:52PMÿ ÿInteresting discussion about margin changes ... however .. given Uncle Al'sÿ consistent desire to broadcast any major changes before they happen ... and hisÿ ÿstance that he doesn't believe margin requirement changes would curb anyÿ excesses ... isn't it unlikely he would do anything at the forthcoming meeting. If he didÿ ÿ(and I believe he should), he would look really, really stupid ... or,ÿ alternatively... totally untrustworthy.ÿ On the other hand, his lessening credibility was touched uponÿ ÿby CNBC guests last week ... so maybe he is cracking between that rock & hardplace he has created.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Stephenÿ