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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (43643)	3/20/2000 6:02:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. March 20, 2000. Ord. The June S&P's should build a top near the 1500 to 1520 area. At the January 3 top the June S&P's hit a high of 1514.50 on 930 million shares. The June S&P's should re-test this area on lighter volume than 930 million shares if this area is going to be resistance. To reiterate, from the October 18 low to the January 3 high the June S&P's retraced 61.8% down to the February 28 low. When a market retraces 61.8% of a previous rally than the next time up the market should only test the previous high and stop. The previous high is the January 3 high of 1514.50 on the June S&P's. Also the "5 day ARMS" indicator is warning of an intermediate term top. When the "5 day ARMS" stays near a reading of "4.00" for weeks than the market is at an intermediate term top and not at a short-term top. During the month of December 1999 the "5 day ARMS" stayed near a reading of "4.00" which warned of the decline that started in January 2000. The " 5 day ARMS" has been near a reading of "4.00" for three weeks. This particular top looks a lot like the bottom in August 31 to October 8 of 1998 but in reverse. The same Fibonacci relationships and ARMS index extreme are present as those found at the 1998 bottom. We are watching for a sell signal to develop near the 1500 to 1520 area on the June S&P's. The Nasdaq ARMS Index closed today at 1.66 and the "5 day Naz ARMS" closed at 5.61, both of which imply the Naz should make a bottom tomorrow.