To: Jerry Olson who wrote (89294 ) 3/20/2000 7:32:00 PM From: Gabriel Respond to of 120523
Taiwan?s Political Chips Fayad Abbasi Mar 20 2000 On Saturday, Taiwan elected Chen Shui-Bian as its next president. The Democratic Progressive Party candidate has been the center of tremendous controversy in regards to the country?s relations with China. In no uncertain terms, China has expressed extreme displeasure about the DPP coming to power in Taiwan, suggesting an attack on the island could be the result. With its importance as a key supplier of semiconductor and electronic components, the ramifications of the election and China?s response are very important for the near-term impact on the industry. Aside from the direct impact on Taiwan Semiconductor [TSM], many of the US based fab-less companies could face serious shortages in supplies. We are not changing our recommendation on our holdings at this time, but we do urge investors to consider the gravity of the situation on the short term for these stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor, along with other foundries and memory manufacturers on the island, stands to lose a great deal if the political situation is as intense as it seems. Taiwan Semiconductor is operating at more than 100 percent operating capacity at this time, and others are operating at near capacity. Aside from the threat of any physical damage to facilities in the event of attack, the threat of personnel and resources diverted to a war effort would hurt the already tight labor situation. If Taiwan?s companies are required to make sacrifices for the country, operating production will surely suffer. However, while Taiwan Semiconductor?s stock has already seen some of the impact, we are more worried about the implication for fab-less companies. Those such as PMC Sierra [PMCS], Broadcom [BRCM], and Globespan [GSPN] require foundries to manufacture their chips. If there are shortages due to political instability, all these companies will suffer. Most of the foundry manufacturing is done in Taiwan, and Taiwan Semiconductor is the largest foundry in the world. At first, the top-tier fab-less companies, such as those mentioned above, will not be directly affected. They have strong relations with the foundries and should not see a significant impact in availability. However, second-tier companies will see cuts in availability. The impact will hurt revenue numbers for many companies. And, if the situation persists, the top-tier companies will also see a similar impact. The ramifications extend beyond foundries, though. Many companies in Taiwan also engage in the manufacture of flash memory, random access memory, and a whole host of electronic components. A shortage in flash could lead to fewer handsets sold in the short term, along with other portable devices. In October of last year, when Taiwan experienced an earthquake that affected many of its manufacturing plants, DRAM prices shot up from about $5 to more than $20. Electronic manufacturing services companies could see more shortages in key components. Again, while we are not changing our recommendations on our stocks at this time, we are much more cautious about purchasing stocks at this level dues to the political climate. If investors are looking for safe havens, we recommend companies that own their own manufacturing capacity, such as Texas Instruments [TXN] and Intel [INTC]. While the entire sector will be hurt, we feel these companies will be insulated from the worst. FWD this page to: