Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (8365)	3/20/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: lindelgs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Hey Jim. What are your thoughts on TERN? Thank you, Legs.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (8365)	3/20/2000 7:28:00 PM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 35685

I'm tryin' to get inside the Fed's Head. It appears that right now Mr. Greenspan has the Nasdaq right where he wants it. The houses have many fooled that the money belongs with the old establishment. The Naz may be sitting with almost a 1/2 point discounted into it. If the Fed raises 1/4 point, the Naz may resume it's rocket ride for a short while. A 1/2 point is more than tapping on the breaks. The Fed clearly doesn't need a 1/2 point raise to curb inflation. It's not even their style to make drastic moves like this. It's usually 1/4 point, then watch and adjust accordingly. There aren't any major indications that inflation is present. Fuel prices have helped to put breaks on the economy, anyway. It seems possible that a 1/4 point is all that we will see. Perhaps a warning of future tightening just to keep us on our toes. The summer stagnation will prevent the market from running away... Election day will roll around soon after. I doubt if the Fed will do anything before then. Do you think we are looking at the last 1/4 point raise for a while? Is this 1/4 point enough to break the Naz for a while? (I don't think so.) Any thoughts by anyone? -Clappy P.S. We also have Japan in a recession and the uncertainty in Taiwan. I wonder is the Fed will leave rates alone...

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (8365)	3/20/2000 8:54:00 PM
From: Manx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

There aren't any major indications that inflation is present. Fuel prices have helped to put breaks on the economy, anyway. Increase in the fuel Prices supposed to lead to the cost- push inflation & lowering output; on the other hand, increasing the interest rate by the Fed is supposed to lower the demand-pull inflation.... However, Alan Greenspan has confesssed that they (the Fed) do not know which part of the technology curve (shock or revolution...S-curve) the economy is----& I agree with this. So, I think, that Alan Greenspan is doing harm by pushing an active (interest rate/monetary) policy, when the decision rules are altered or are not transparent. He is trying to indicate that he is leaning against the wind. But, I think he is in a sub (u-boat)under the ice (north pole) while the ice is melting---indicating that the ice age is over (we should have realized by now that, a revolution greater than the industrial age is upon us). During Alan Greenspan's last testimony, Senator Sarbane (D--MD)questioned his view that higher productivity leads to higher stock prices & should lead to a higher demand (hence, inflation, if output does not catch up). The fact is that, economic research is inconclusive about the impact of stock prices (assets) on consumption expenditure---shareholders do not consume any different than the ones with no sahres. But, Greenspan answered as if this is for certain----i.e., a 20% increase in assests prices leads to a 1% increase in consumption expenditure. So, I think he will raise the rate a little & put everone on warning & keep (passively) pretending that we owe him this economy and not that to the Einstiens, Shannons, Gates, Groves, Irwins, ...& many other visionaries----Steve Forbes had a point. Sorry if my 2 cents became 2 $s.