To: Bearded One who wrote (96963 ) 3/21/2000 2:09:00 AM From: dbblg Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
>>Yahoo will tank, too. The argument is simple-- Yahoo is funded by advertising revenue from many of the companies on Barron's list. YHOO has a pretty broad subscriber base. Let us know when you expect Ford, Home Depot, and the major online brokerages to go under. As long as YHOO remains a premier location (and even if you assume roughly half of their users are phantoms, they offer a desirable audience) they'll attract plenty of advertising. Given the trivial amount of money it takes to run the business, they can weather a pretty long wilderness period. >>This internet may be a very different place in a year. Way to go out on a limb.:) Seriously, YHOO would probably be better off now if there had been rougher, or at any rate longer-lasting shakeouts along the way. Ironically, the cost of acquiring GCTY and BCST was so high not because those companies had executed so well, but because YHOO and the other leaders had attracted so much capital to the sector. During the shakeout in summer 1996, Halsey Minor used to tell people that companies like CNET had won the war for the internet since they had managed to get funded (and in CNETs case I think this was still private funding!) before the window had slammed shut. Many poor souls who believed that kind of talk and sold their web-related businesses for a song in 1996 can now be found muttering bitterly about manias and tulips in Palo Alto bars and sometimes even on SI. Anyway, have fun shorting YHOO. I once clawed my way back from a portfolio-near-death experience by trading exclusively from the short side for almost a year, but I'll never understand the compunction to short growing companies with low-gravity biz. models. Reminds me of the way drunks always pick fights with guys who are bigger than they are, but to each his own, I guess.