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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bretsky who wrote (20892)3/21/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: DownSouth  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
Thanks, Bret. I thought this paragraph was of particular interest. It helps explain the fast fall of NTAP and others last week:

But this kind of free fall in the prices of stocks that have zoomed the fastest and farthest is exactly what you should expect in the current market. Margin debt is at record levels, and that means that many of the investors who own these highfliers have bought them with borrowed cash. Since those loans are secured only by the value of the stocks themselves, when the market heads down, the collateral on the loans is no longer worth enough to secure the loan. Then brokerage firms send out margin calls. Investors don't have much time to meet a margin call -- just until the end of the day. And very few investors cough up new cash, choosing to sell some of their shares instead. The result is massive, forced selling into a falling market, which triggers more margin calls. No wonder that in a market with such high levels of margin debt, declines are steep and fast...

And an investor doesn't have much time to make the call to jump back in, either. Once the forced selling and the panic selling end, stocks can start to bounce back very quickly. A sell-off -- even a 10% correction -- that lasts just a few days or a week isn't long enough to have any real effect on investor psychology or behavior. After a bloody but compressed correction like those that have characterized this market to date, you can expect investors to crowd back in almost immediately.

That's why I made two picks in Friday's Jubak's Journal and why I'm making two more -- JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Network Appliance -- today. The rally from here could be quite explosive.


Keep in mind that Jubak is a "buy and sell" kinda guy, so his strategy is not exactly ggaming, but his opinion is interesting from our point of view.



To: Bretsky who wrote (20892)3/21/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: rushnomore  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Thanks for your link to Jim Jubak's column on the MoneyCentral web site, where he mentions NTAP and JDSU. I have never read his columns before. Following a link on the page you referenced, I found this in his column of Feb 4:

On Feb. 1, when I totaled the performance of Jubak's Picks, I showed a gain of a whole 1% for 2000 to date.

This is not the kind of performance that inspires me to follow his recommendations.