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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (20941)3/21/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: Seldom_Blue  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
My goal in presenting the spreadsheet is not to calculate the probability, or the timing of buying and selling. It was intended to calculate at what consistent rate one has to beat the market (sell/buy at 5, 10, 15% discount) in order to beat the LTB&H method.

There are, of course, no guarantees that once you sell the stock, you will have a chance to buy it back at a lower price. We all know once we sell the stock, the stock is supposed to go up immediately.

It also assumes the advantage of getting the 15% annual appreciation, even in the year of buying and selling. As another poster once pointed out, missing just a small number of best days in a stock significantly reduces one's return.

Seldom Blue