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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lawdog who wrote (16062)	3/22/2000 11:20:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

A "new" voter is what McCain and the Media claimed he was attracting. It was a fabrication, of course. The Myth of Footprints McCain?s New "Millions": Time for a Recount (ABCNEWS.com) Analysis By Gary Langer N E W Y O R K, March 14 ? It has become fashionable to report that Sen. John McCain brought ?millions of new voters? to the polls this primary season, that many of his supporters just might jump to Al Gore this fall, and that McCain?s millions are on fire for campaign finance reform. The numbers say: Whoa. First, the new voters: In the Super Tuesday exit polls, 20 percent said it was their first time voting in a Republican primary. (Some of them were too young to have voted previously, but to be generous, let?s count them.) Fifty-five percent of those voters went for McCain. These are the new voters McCain brought in: Fifty-five percent of 20 percent of all GOP voters. These are the new voters McCain brought in: Fifty-five percent of 20 percent of all GOP voters. (ABCNEWS.com) ABCNEWS estimates that 12,453,466 warm bodies voted in Republican nominating events ? primaries and caucuses alike ? through last Friday. Exit polls weren?t conducted in all these events, but let?s assume the Super Tuesday number applies across the lot. Twenty percent of all GOP voters as new voters ? that?s 2.49 million souls. And new McCain voters were 55 percent of that ? 1.37 million. At best then, we cannot say that McCain brought in ?millions of new voters,? but fewer than 1.5 million. Looking to November, that is less than seventh-tenths of one percent of the voting-age population. Smoked Defectors Next, the defectors: This past weekend?s ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll should deflate the notion that former McCain supporters are seriously up for grabs. It?s an odd idea anyway, since it suggests that many of McCain?s backers could find more in common with Al Gore than with Gov. George W. Bush. To put it mildly, that?s a stretch. Indeed, 76 percent of former McCain supporters in the ABC/Post poll said that, in a Gore-vs-Bush race, they?d support Bush. Just 14 percent said they?d defect to Gore. In Super Tuesday exit polls, more than twice as many McCain voters, 37 percent, said they?d jump to Gore. But that was among a smaller, more select group?actual, hard-core McCain voters ? and it was a sentiment expressed in the heat of the primary battle. The Mouse that Roared Finally, campaign finance reform. Was it the burning issue behind McCain?s support? Apparently not. Among all McCain voters on Super Tuesday, 16 percent cited campaign finance reform as the most important issue in their vote ? tying it for second place, behind ?moral values? and even with Social Security/Medicare. Look at it this way: Just one in six of McCain?s own voters said campaign finance reform was their main motivating issue. Eighty-four percent picked something else. abcnews.go.com