To: Maya who wrote (48859 ) 3/23/2000 5:06:00 PM From: John Rieman Respond to of 50808
Better buy your DVD player now. DVD players may be in short supply, maybe 12M sell in the US, during 2000........etown.com DVD PLAYERS MAY BECOME SCARCE Industry insider: production won't meet demand 3/20/2000 By Lawrence E. Ullman March 20, 2000 -- A DVD player shortage may loom just ahead due to outmoded industry forecasting practices, according to Steve Nickerson, Warner Home Video's Vice President for DVD Marketing Worldwide. He predicted shortfalls recently at the 30th Annual Recording Media Forum. Nickerson said that historical forecasting practices simply don't accurately gauge the demand for DVD, which is growing at unprecedented rates. For example, Nickerson explains, actual U.S. sales figures reported during the first nine weeks of 2000 indicate a 200 percent growth rate. If sales continue at this pace, 12 million DVD players might be sold domestically this year. Based on surveys taken in September 1999, however, the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) is forecasting sales of only 6.5 million, while the DVD Entertainment Group is forecasting 8 million, based on surveys taken in January. Calling this under-forecasting a "self-fulfilling prophecy," Nickerson pointed out that it led to significant product shortages in the fourth quarters of 1998 and 1999, and will likely do so again this year unless manufacturers ramp up their assembly lines. Etown.com will follow up regarding this potential shortfall prediction to see if hardware manufacturers are dealing with the "crisis" -- or if one even exists. The international view While DVD is growing in Western Europe, and Asia, sales are tiny compared to U.S. levels. One reason is the relatively low penetration of home theater. Only 11 percent of European households currently have home-theater systems, though this number is expected to nearly double by 2003, said Jim Bottoms, Director and Co-Founder, Understanding & Solutions, during a talk at the same industry conference. Not surprisingly, DVD regional coding is being ignored on a grand scale, Bottoms says. More than two-thirds of players in Europe have been modified to play discs from any region, and demand for Region 1 (North American) DVDs is huge. [The uproar over regional coding is currently giving Sony fits in Japan since gamers figured out how to make the supposedly Japan-only machine play discs from America -- Ed.]