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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (97161)	3/22/2000 6:32:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Do you think Amazon can beat that $4.6B sales estimate for 2001? How large can Amazon grow its revenues before their financial doom cuts into customer spending? Randy, I am sure you see what I am trying to make although I could be wrong. I keep looking at my stock performane with Amazon and know I was wrong with that. Thank tgoodness, early 1999 was the last time I had a position there. It was really painful. Sorry I just finised my capital gains/loss report. I am not sure that my statement ever indicated Amazon has financial doom. I have one premice that I believe will always hold true. That is fulifllment costs will always exceed gross margins. If that is the case, Amazon can never become profitable. Possible changes that affect the fulifllment costs as a percentage of margins are: 1: Increased gross margins by charging more not less for the convenience of having a product delivered to the home. This may only occur when competition is not an all at war. 2. Amazon is able to obtain revenue in significant amounts that are not derived from products they handle and sell. Sell AOL for this. Do you think Amazon can beat that $4.6B sales estimate for 2001? Yes. A lot depends on the business climate (competition) and the state of the world economy. It is no longer dependant upon the US economy. Do you think Amazon can survive (I already know you think they can't thrive)? Yes but not with the current business plan as I perceive it. Amazon wants to handle the products they can sell so they can insure good service. That will not work unless they can command higher prices than found in brick and mortar stores. See above. Finally, my opinion is they need to recruit more talent that is familiar with retailing as compared to technology. They have made some major retailing errors although I can't think of a retailer that has not. Trial and error in retailing is part of the business.