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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: NY Stew who wrote (2494)3/23/2000 5:11:00 AM
From: Jeff Bond  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6516
 
Hey Stew,

Aw man, I can't let you do this to yourself, not to someone I personally refer to as "the thread's personal research department"; it would not be fair, and we'd all suffer (so this is a selfishly motivated moment on my part). You stated, to quote:

"Once again I am left with the realization that Henry can only be appreciated ... and of my own arrogance for questioning such, even if for a moment."

You just go on having as many of those "arrogant questioning moments" as you'd like; in fact please pick up the pace :o)

In questioning, and hypothetically even disagreeing with Henry (or any great mind for that matter), you force yourself to think in a manner that leads to better true understanding. That's why you scoop us with SO MUCH good stuff; it's not e-scraps you serve up, its TRULY good stuff.

If you continually correct yourself with self-imposed honest feedback, you develop the ability to exercise unbiased, critical reasoning, tempered with a healthy dose of humility.

My recollection is the emotion you expressed is THE EXACT feeling Henry experienced when "the moment" came to him; in the form of the humble yet critical conviction he was capable of developing a system that would allow him to easily tape a Red Sox game using his VCR ... The resulting technology needs no introduction, needless to say :o)

Humility (or the ability to accept being humbled) I feel is a truly special quality. Call it coincidence, but your post perfectly complements the thoughts I wanted to share tonight, concerning creative moments and how it might relate to the future of e-books.

I'm been very humbled lately, and I know I will be better off long-term in being so. Twice now, I've been mis-understood, or I did not properly understand what someone was saying when communicating. For someone who communicates as a part of doing business, the differences underscored the fact I needed to re-think my current position and attitudes.

In the case of impropery assuming what someone meant when communicating an idea to me, I reacted improperly, leading to much personal embarrasment. In forgiving my error, that person displayed a greater understanding, which just further reinforced the fact it was time I eat a healty dose of humble pie.

This leads to my personal thoughts on innovation, applicable to all those that choose to create:

1. Questioning the status-quo, or challenging current thinking requires effort and courage, because it forces a person to truly think, and chances are very good the resulting action will be an admission by that person that they were wrong.

Not so easy, yet I truly believe great ideas come from great minds not afraid of failure or admitting to being wrong; which allows them to comfortably challenge ideas other people might assume are cast in stone.

2. Humility tempers critical thought, it allows a person to work from a frame of mind of being wrong towards the final understanding he actually is right rather than the other way around.

I've noticed I think best humbled, when reflecting on how truly great people handle themselves, and comparing their actions to how I might have handled a similar circumstance.

3. GREAT IDEAS COME FROM GREAT MINDS THAT HUMBLY YET CRITICALLY EMBARK ON A JOURNEY OF CHALLENGING THE STATUS QUO.

With respect to e-books, I humbly submit the following two thoughts (and to Henry if he reads the thread, which would NOT surprise me a bit):

1. Melding the e-book with the PDA is logical, since the two devices complement each other very well, and provide one more opportunity to integrate/consolidate the collection, storage, and retrieval of information. Gonna happen, price is the deciding factor in who wins this battle, a PDA based or an e-book based combination device.

E-book claims more storage, lower price point, and a better display; PDA's claim established familiarity, they do their job very well, and they benefit in having an excellent standard to build upon, namely PalmOS (which as an aside, is the REAL CROWN JEWEL of PALM.)

I think GMST's long-term war strategy would benefit in considering who wins the battle between PalmOS or their current technology, and which would better serve the purpose of integrating these two devices. The conclusion to license PalmOS may or not make sense, but I think there is a possibility it may serve GMST well, IF consumers show a leaning towards a PDA-based rather than an e-book based combination device.

If GMST were to license PalmOS, they would gain all the tools that come with it that make development of PDA specific applications so much easier.

Betting on Win CE may or may not prove to be a good business decision, based on how well MSFT markets the product, and how willing consumers are to adopt another "Windows" environment.

Personally, I do not like Win 95, Win 98, or Win NT for what they do, but I LOVE Win CE for what it does. MSFT NEEDS to back and promote this product (frankly, they should give it away, just as they did with IE); GMST would truly win if this were to occur, and they built combination devices based on Win CE.

2. I've considered another potential player GMST should be investigating, to determine if there is a synery to benefit from, is Nintendo.

First, there is NO MORE POPULAR or better designed hand-held device than the Gameboy. Palm doesn't even come close in terms of technology, price point, feature set, performance, or even popularity. Gameboy rocks, ask any kid who knows games (they all do :o) and he'll tell you there is NO alternative, and for that matter, who cares anyways because it rocks that hard.

A combination e-book, Gameboy type device would offer entertainment on two levels, reading and games, and would most likely be very popular with children as well as parents. Let little Johnny play a few games, but only AFTER he reads his homework; timer functionality, a basic page-view validation routine, and some pretty outine programming could easily make something like this a reality.

GMST may benefit in working with Nintendo to create such a device. Having a GMST product in the hands of children at such a young would surely ingrain the name Gemstar in their minds for a lifetime. It's not a bad start, and increases the possibility they would select other GMST enabled devices later in life.

Gemstar and Palm, Gemstar and Nintendo, Gemstar and both; all are possible scenarios, and all would truly help Gemstar reach their fullest potential. Toss in a humble, critical thinker for CEO, and the combination is nearly unstoppable. I wish I were a fly on the wall ... simply to benefit from seeing how a truly great mind thinks ... it IS something to marvel, and it also is something to INVEST in.

Conclusion: E-book technology was a COUP for Henry, bigger than most consider; I wonder if it possibly is even greater than even he initially considered. Gemstar is destined for greatness, like it or not (I like it :o).

Prediction: Buy, Hold, 4-years, 10-bagger minimum return ... uh, if I cannot be great, I think at least I'll put my money on it, that may not be great, but it sure ain't stupid.

Regards, JB