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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: voop who wrote (21106)	3/23/2000 10:17:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

thread--How fuel cells fit with GG'ing. I took a look at fuel cells last fall, and can provide some conclusions: Fuel cells are a classic disruptive technology for various applications. They are presently more expensive than gasoline-powered internal combustion engines, and oil-burning furnaces. They cost more to make and to run. But, they have attractive features. They are cleaner. They should be more reliable (fewer moving parts). They may cost less when they get into full production. United Technologies is producing product for a real niche market--backup power in large installations that need 24/7 service absolutely. This seems to be a classic niche from which a disruptive technology can move to start knocking down bowling pins (to mix consultants' metaphors a bit). There are lots of shortcomings of present power supplies that fuel cells might address. Maurice Winn, who many of us know from the QCOM thread and GSTRF, is a proponent of fuel cells for portable phones. No more worrying about an extra battery, because a refill would be just a squeeze away. Much better potential weight-to-power characteristics than any of the present alternatives, etc. (Maurice is one of the visionaries within the SI community). Fuel cells haven't entered the tornado. They haven't even begun to be sold commercially in any meaningful way! The runup in the prices of the fuel cell stocks is on speculation or expectation that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, and that viable commercial products will emerge. I personally made the decision last year that we are too far away from mass commercialization for me to be interested. There are a number of players. BLDP, PLUG are the most "famous" pure plays. PLUG has links to GE, and is apparently aiming its efforts at the home market (e.g., water heaters, etc.). BLDP's efforts are towards vehicles, and it has various cooperative efforts underway with auto manufacturers. These two companies are not the only players. Some of the larger utility companies apparently have efforts underway. United Technologies has a significant effort going on, producing larger units. Lindybill's objection (that government will take the meat off the bones, if I may grossly summarize) is limited mostly to the automotive segment, I believe. There should be far less government interference in the fixed installation side of things, where fuel cells might coexist initially with the propane distribution infrastructure, for instance (i.e., rural areas). In my opinion fuel cells are a development to keep an eye on, but not on this thread. It's too early. (I also expect that we will see some retrenchment in the prices of these stocks as the current momentum dies). Best, John PS--On a personal note. I looked at BLDP when it was in the 30's, in about November. I did not buy. I console myself (and don't feel too bad about the miss!) that the sector is not GG material yet. It hasn't entered a tornado.