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To: TREND1 who wrote (50971)	3/23/2000 12:05:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

--Larry You mean the CEO of MU, who just announced another one billion dollars worth of debt to be used for, among other things, capex, laughed at the suggestion that the people he will spend much of that money with have no feel for the DRAM market? If that's the case, why bend over backwards to point out MU already has "shell" fabs available to expand capacity quickly. Everyone--DRAM makers, analysts, equipment makers--seems to agree that capacity will be tight toward yearend. The question I have is whether there will be sufficient demand to translate that capacity shortage into significantly higher dram prices and how long that shortage will last, probably not long, if you judge by both Lam and AMAT's order backlog. Best --Steve

To: TREND1 who wrote (50971)	3/24/2000 1:07:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 53903

The forecast itself might be it's undoing: If you were a DRAM manufacturer and were entering into the slower quarters of the year before the strong fall/winter quarters I bet you might be thinking: "let's crank out as much as we can now and put any oversupply on the shelf to sell in the Fall when we can get a higher ASP." OEMs, distributors and the grey market might also build up in anticipation of a shortage. When there is excess money to be made, capacity has a way of being wrung out.