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Technology Stocks : Meade Instruments Corp MEAD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RocketMan who wrote (42)3/23/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: Bosco  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 175
 
Hi all - bought a little MEAD a few days ago. I am actually not particular a Gilder reader and I do not think Terabeam will contribute much to MEAD in the near term. However, when the news broke, I was nosy to check out MEAD. From Yahoo! Profile, obviously w/o the Terabeam scenario factored in, MEAD was severely undervalued co. If memory serves, when the stock was in mid 30s, the Yahoo! Research thinks her current year growth was 78%, next 5 years would be 25% [annualized] and p/e was 28. That would make her PEG less than .3.

Fast forward to now, even with the stock being almost doubled, she still sports a sub 1 PEG and conservative balance sheet. My conclusion is that she is worth more even without the Terabeam story. The only difference between then and now is that the train is pulling out of the value camp and is about to embark on a growth journey

Incidentally, here is the write up of the Terabeam in InfoWorld

infoworld.com
best, Bosco



To: RocketMan who wrote (42)3/23/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: jlib  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 175
 
Do you have any thoughts on whether the problem Terabeam set out to solve in '97 is now diminished by the proliferation of unlit fiber in the very urban areas it would likely be used in. This has got to be more expensive in the long run than most laid fiber solutions. I kind of wonder if it won't end up a niche thing, useful when there is no alternative but not the cost effective choice.

Since Terrabeam isn't at the stage of talking about costs yet (their web site mentioned just starting beta testing in Seattle this month) and since Meade is silent about their financial arrangements it is difficult to tell if such an increase in Meade is justified going forward. The comment from the company on Dow Jones News today concerning their current roadshow was as follows:
  Mark Peterson, vice president and general counsel
at Meade, said increased excitement about the TeraBeam
deal is driving the stock up. "We are not really sharing
additional information about TeraBeam," he said. "Most
of what they are talking about on the road show is our
core business." Peterson said more information about
the TeraBeam pact will come in a few weeks.


Since any significant revenue from supplying lenses to Terabeam is months or years away I think few would be willing to hold this stock at these stratospheric levels if they were recent buyers (i.e., today) with both the technical and historical likelihood of a strong pullback. Everyone knowledgeable I have spoke with says Meade's products are outstanding so I can only say good things about their telescopes. With earnings coming out soon (even if good), that will only highlight the discrepancy between the value of the company and the price of its stock. I am curious if any others here who follows Meade bought it in the last two days as anything more than a momentum play? Do you really expect to hold it through earnings? I really would like to know because the chart has "short me" written all over it, especially since the company has basically said today the increase is just a speculative frenzy.

Best,
Jimmy Liberato