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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (12710)	3/23/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 15132

Interesting discussion. There is a break down in that the pattern of lower highs and lows was smashed and we went to new highs that he said he didn't see happening (in the total market). Something I don't see people discuss is protecting critical mass is done with asset allocation to begin with. Some start at 50:50 stocks/fixed and might go to 30% stocks if they have a very large net worth. The problem with market timing, being wrong, then saying you are protecting wealth does nothing for the 20 and 30 something year old investors that let a good chunk of market gain sit on the table and will miss seeing that compound for 50 or 60 years if they do not get an opportunity to buy in at a lower level (plus taxes). You are right, cash does provide you with options, but I am glad I have my options with an intact, personal portfolio, up 20% from the call, no taxes paid and still have "options" like going to cash should I wish. So...what are you going to do? Holding on to all those banking stocks would have made you look great. If they are just starting their comeback, they still might be cheap, though the gains left are much less now that some like C are up 29% in a matter of weeks.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (12710)	3/23/2000 5:37:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 15132

I hear you. In fact, I am surprised that Brinker rode the market as long as he did. I have been wary since 1996 or so, when P/E expansions started becoming the dominant cause of stock-price increases. Since then, I have been gradually getting out of the most risky part of the market (techs) and into mostly conservative, dividend-paying stocks. It will indeed be a shame if Brinker gave in to the pressure and got back on the bandwagon.