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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (5001)	3/23/2000 5:58:00 PM
From: IndexTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Bobby, Always appreciate your insights. The McClellan Oscillator closed at +149 today, yet the Naz McClellan is still below the zero line at -18 (but climbing). Other Naz breadth oscillators are also bottoming. I suspect next week we will see the Naz have an explosive move up based on its own broadening out. (I hope so.. I am long lots of Naz stuff)<g>

To: bobby beara who wrote (5001)	3/24/2000 6:12:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 5676

BB, all what you are saying makes perfect sense from an TA point of view, but it does not match the FA reality and I mean in relation to real inflation, interest rate and value of creating or replacing a business. Therefore the high numbers of new start-up and IPO's. IMHO a bottom of a bear market will be caracterized by zipo IPO's and zipo start-ups doom and gloom enviroment. Presently the CB's are proping the printing presses and the globalization is leveling the playing field. .....e.g corporations do not make the same dough they made several years ago due to pricing presure. The surprise will come from substantial inflation from the grain / food and energy cost. The recent drop in energy prices is just a mild correction as energy resources are limited and population growht is exploding, just it will take some time for that to get recignized, then not even AG and his fellow CB's will be able to do anything. They are playing a very dangerous game and a continuation of government misreporting of inflation number will bite back. BWDIK HAim

To: bobby beara who wrote (5001)	3/27/2000 2:44:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 5676

Hello, BB What an avalanche of posts here. Bears coming out of hibernation? >>finding the top has been highly elusive and telling when it will stop rising is the question. We know that already. It's even in the intro of this thread. But that won't stop me from looking for it and crying Wolf every now and then. >>many of these stocks 50-80% off their highs....The A/D line has a clear ABC move down from the 1998 top, and i believe it has bottomed...Lately, I've been thinking that the 1998 bottom was a 24 year cycle bottom, complete with a presidential crisis...This could be just like 1994, with a stealth bear market. In my LT EW count on the SPX , 1994 correction was Intermediate 2 of Primary 5 that started from the 1990 recession low (Cycle 5 started in 1974, the SuperCycle started from 1932). Intermediate 3 went all the way to 7/1999 high, 7-10/99 was a short but effective intermediate 4 (NYSE corrected more extensively from 7/99 to 2/00) and we're on Intermediate 5. Intermediate 3 was the extended wave of the Primary impulse so Intermediate 5's targets are either minimal (new high) or normal (same as wave 1), but not extended. Minimal target has already been surpassed when we took out 12/31 high. Maximum target : Intermediate 3 spanned 970 SPX points, and Intermediate 4 bottomed at 1233 so the most we could see from the SPX is 2200. That's another 44% from here and at the rate this market is climbing it shouldn't take more then 1 1/2 years. Normal target: Intermediate wave 1, although over 3 years in length, carried the SPX only 180 points, or 60% rise. Assuming a similar %age rise, 5 of 5 could reach SPX 1974. That's only 29% rise from here, and attainable this summer. Looks to me we just completed 3 of minute 1 of minor 3 of intermediate 5. The current flat 4 correction should take us to somewhere between 1480 and 1505 and my guess is minuette 5 will only equal the recent high of 1550. Then a deep minute 2 to 1450 area, and minute 3 is anybody's guess, being 3 of 3 of 5 it could be very violent. On the SPX chart of the last 3 years there's a straight rising line connecting the 8/97, 4/98, 7/98, 4-5/99 and 7/99 tops. My guess is 3 of 3 will break over this line (currently at 1585) and 4 of 3 will correct to that broken resistance. Minute 5 of minor 3 should be small , and minor 4 flat, just like . Minor 5 could be an ending diagonal but my guess is it will be a bull trap, racing to new high only to fall back and trap the bulls in the market. Not all the market tops together. Many two letter stocks are over their peak. GT and KO topped in '98, BA and EK topped in '97. So what? BS topped in the '70s. I was surprised that PG waited that long before it, too, joined the rest of the old economy gorillas. ATG