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To: michael r potter who wrote (4108)	3/24/2000 1:32:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 4467

Response to previous post regarding overvaluation. One way to avoid that issue is to rely on technicals and sentiment. If one relied to much on historical measures of overvaluation, one would have missed most of the great movers since the Oct. bottom. True fundamentals do matter but if one is diversified and uses technicals or other non-F/A systems in a disciplined way one can obtain the benefit of the current mania while having some protection when it ends. Discipline in exit is vital so as to not ride these overvalued stocks a long way down. Still risky, as the moves are getting increasingly sudden and violent. Mike

To: michael r potter who wrote (4108)	3/24/2000 9:10:00 AM
From: Rob Palmer	Respond to of 4467

Mike - OT: As always, excellent post!! Like you, I expect a peak in the tech companies in or around April for this year. Don't think that will be the end of them though. I give the general bull market several more years (Harry Dent thinking). What are your expectations for the entire market? Will it keep going with sector rotation, or do you think it's just about over due to the speculation going on as we speak? Don't you think money flows will pick up again after a seasonal slow down? One thing's for sure, this market is volatile. Rob ps. Thanks for your comments regarding CMPC.

To: michael r potter who wrote (4108)	3/24/2000 9:37:00 AM
From: MGV	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4467

Mike, Just a couple of comments intended to catalyze friendly debate. "I'll take 12% growth with a 6 or 7 PE [and low expectations] over 30% growth and 150 PE ...." As stated, no one should disagree with the above choice you make. The problem with it is this: The companies that are expected to grow 12% are in that part of the economy where there tends to be pricing pressure that makes the 12% growth estimate dicey. How many people do you suppose would have picked P&G as a higher risk stock than JDSU? In the end, the overriding issue that made the apparently less risky pick the wrong one was: P&G is feeling pricing pressure. JDSU is not. The point is that too much of the 12% growth estimates may very well be more illusory than the 70% growth estimates of the very best of breed technology companies. That does not mean the techs all are legitimate. Selectivity is that much more important because at higher valuations mistakes are that much more painful. On the other hand, combining 30% growth with a "150 p/e" understates the best growth companies that are growing 70% plus. VIGN has had 3 consecutive quarters of 60% plus sequential growth.