Al.. On MSFT..............
Information processing and converting an info into trade is a key core strategy that has helped me over the years, everyone has info, it is the development of the ability to read info without prejuidice and use it for a trade.
I for one have always gone above this normal fray of 'heightened music and drama investing CNBC' kind for me.
I look at news and than select the parts that makes me think that how a certain item of news will impact the price, now later please look at the way I handle this MSFT news in NYT of 25th March....
I do make decisions, some may be wrong but sticking the neck out and making up your strategy a few days earlier than the next door neighbours makes you that much a better trader. Options helps me to be a part of the game.
We on our end try our best to be a second earlier, that is how brka came into light thati s how IBM was followed and thati s Soft Bank is closely watched, the big news impacting the price, Iridium launch was met by post on this thread about the possible failure of the operations but in case of GSTRF I missed thelessons from Iridium, I was not a part of Iridium but GSTRF I did buy calls now worthless the only mistake was that I did not apply Iridium lessons to this new launch.. now back to MSFT...
If Bill Gates joins the meeting with Joel I.Klien hed of the anti trust Justice department division, on Sunday or Monday, I would interpret it as good news since NYT says that <<If government lawyers decide Microsoft's new proposal is serious, William H. Gates, Microsoft's chairman, and Mr. Klein might be expected to join the talks, when they do reopen, perhaps as soon as Sunday or Monday. >> Now we traders read the news a little differently, I would see that report and highlight the process that will take me through the report likeone published in NYT today and lead me to alerts where it will be key information for my trading plan.. My trading plan calls for watching the developments, if Gates and Balmer joins thenegotiations we will have a settlement or it will be hammered over next week, if not we may have the verdict.
It will be difficult for 19 AG's to agree on a course of action or remedies, some want that mSFT has to be broken others would like iron-clad safety measures but the problem for them is that the Judge handling the verdict wants a single voice on remedy, thatm akes MSFT hands stronger they will play on the divisive nature of AG's remedies..
Moreover the industry does not want to be rattled, they want somekind of rebuke and strong meausres to break the hold however according to NYT.. <<All of Microsoft's proposals, they said, are for changes in conduct. The company has made it clear, in the settlement talks and in public, that it would not accept a breakup of the company. Breakup proposals, the company has said, are "an extreme and reckless resolution to the government's antitrust suit."
But some government officials think anything short of that would not be effective. As one put it today: "If we don't make fundamental changes, then soon enough we'll be fighting this battle all over again."
And when Mr. Klein met with leaders of the technology industry last fall, asking them for public support of proposed sanctions against Microsoft -- without saying exactly what he had in mind -- he received something short of enthusiastic responses. Without industry support, a stringent remedy might be hard to enact. >>
According to NYT <<Among the conduct remedies that have been discussed, officials said, is forcing Microsoft to publish a common price list for Windows so the company could not use prices to penalize or reward computer makers for their level of cooperation with the company.
Another idea would force Microsoft to publish the codes that allow software writers to link their programs to Windows -- codes known as applications program interfaces -- in a uniform, formal way. >>
These have been may be at the core of any offered plan to Restrain Business MSFT Practices..
Now if the codes are opened I don't see a short term problem but increased innovation as budding software writers link their programmes to Windows, that is a big concession but it will not reduce effectivity of Windows,,
Accordng to NYT, Plaintiffs in Antitrust Suit Disagree on a Position, although Microsoft presented a formal written proposal today that would restrain some of the company's business practices, officials said. I don't know how far thwey have gone to meet the objectives setby the plaintiffs.
<<Lawyers for the Justice Department and 19 state attorneys general were studying the proposal tonight to decide whether it was promising enough to warrant weekend negotiations.
Officials said the proposal included so much technical detail that they could not analyze it quickly, although one also said Microsoft "appears to have come a long way with this, but not as far as I think they should."
Reaching agreement with Microsoft, however, is only part of the plaintiffs' task. They must also agree among themselves.
The Justice Department and the state attorneys general are partners in the suit, and among them hold a range of opinions on what they could accept as a settlement. Some attorneys general believe anything short of breaking up the company would be ineffective, while others do not want to split up Microsoft. But officials said proposals that would restructure the company have not been on the table in the talks. If the settlement talks fail, Judge Jackson's verdict could come within a few days. After that, in a separate proceeding, the state and federal governments will offer a remedy proposal to the judge. For that, the Justice Department and attorneys general will have to agree, because Judge Jackson has made it clear he wants only one proposal. >>
<<On Tuesday, Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson, who is trying the case in federal court here, called lawyers from both sides to his chambers to ask for a progress report on the settlement talks, which have been under way since Nov. 30.
The trial is over; all that is left is the verdict. But Judge Jackson is withholding it to give the settlement talks time to run their course. On Tuesday, however, he made it clear that he was not willing to wait beyond next week. And given his findings of fact in the case, published in November, he is almost certain to find Microsoft in violation of antitrust law -- prompting the company to offer concessions today that officials said it had not offered before.
Richard A. Posner, chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals in Chicago, who is serving as mediator, has been making similar suggestions of urgency for weeks. Originally he said he wanted to conclude the talks by early February.
Since the meeting with Judge Jackson this week, state and federal officials have been furiously calling, sending e-mail messages and meeting in an effort to agree on a strategy. Many of the attorneys general have been in Washington for an annual meeting that ended today, and while here some of them have met with Joel I. Klein, head of the Justice Department's antitrust division.
But as the attorneys general consider Microsoft's proposal, the states have no central decision-making process for deciding whether it warrants serious negotiation, requiring lots of phone calls and messages to reach a decision.
On Thursday, after reports in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post indicated that the pace of settlement talks had increased, Microsoft's stock gained more than 7 percent. Today it closed at $111.6875, down 18.75 cents.
Both state and federal officials said publicly that they would not comment on the talks, and none would describe the proposal in detail. Microsoft declined to comment.
But all of them appear to be keeping their options open to meet in Chicago with Judge Posner this weekend. But they have decided not to meet on Saturday.
Several officials noted, however, that it was not easy to make a decision because of the technical detail in the proposal. The last time Microsoft and the government settled an antitrust case, in 1994, Mr. Gates insisted on one detail -- the ability to add new features to the Windows operating system -- that seemed unimportant to the government at the time but later proved to be the basis for the current suit, which contends in part that Microsoft illegally combined its Web browser with Windows. >>
Based on the above report I feel we will not have a verdict but a settlement, that I stick my neck out, the process how I made this assumption fwiw is clearly spelled out above, that is how I analyse any report and make my decision to stay in a trade or get out of it, ithas worked fine so far, hope so this rational approach will help in future too.. Lets wait and see.. nice story and interesting developments to watch over next week.. The stock post settlement would arguably do well.. post verdict 'Baby Bills' can do well too, a borken up MSFT over 4 years will not be anything less than giant monolith it is now may be better, but market hates ubncertainity both ways a settlement or a verdict would be great news for the industry as a whole.. For medium term it is a win win situation for hte traders.. like us..
"Our experience with this is not a happy one, not inspiring of confidence," one official said. Several officials said it would take time to analyze the document to make sure it did not include similar potential vulnerabilities.
Until now, Microsoft and government lawyers have been meeting separately with Judge Posner in Chicago. One day, the judge would talk to one side, the next day to the other. And then the judge would try to draw the two sides together. If the talks go forward next week, the two sides will probably meet face to face for the first time since their initial meeting with the judge on Nov. 30.
At one stage of the talks early this year, Judge Posner asked the state and federal officials, one by one, for their proposed remedies, and as each official offered his idea, the suggestions were all over the map -- from restraining Microsoft's behavior to breaking up the company. Never have all of the parties -- the Justice Department and the 19 states -- agreed on a common approach. |
