Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Meade Instruments Corp MEAD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jlib who wrote (76)	3/26/2000 9:26:00 AM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 175

Order of magnitude calculation of impact: Assume 100 M people work in cities Assume ultimate terabeam penetration is 25M (25%) Assume average size of organization is 250 people Therefore number of window units = 25M/250 = 100,000 Each unit costs $150, assume mead's share is $40 (ie about 1/4) Then total potential mead sales = $40 x 100,000 = $4M Assume this is spread out over a few years and results in incremental sales of $1M/year Be liberal and assign a PSR of 10 to this. Therefore incremental increase in shareholder value should be $10M or $1.25/share. The above is an order of magnitude (ie most likely good within a factor of 10) estimate. All imo, Gary

To: jlib who wrote (76)	3/26/2000 1:46:00 PM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 175

Looks like Tabler got it right wrt the impact on Meade of the Terabeam deal. From Post-Intelligencer "TeraBeam's business plan figures customers will pay $6,300 per month for 1 gbps and that TeraBeam's break-even point will come when eight customers sign on in each cell. A fully loaded cell, with 24 customers, will bring TeraBeam $151,000 in revenue per month. The heart of the window sill units cost only $150 to build. Shares of Meade Instruments Corp., of Irvine, Calif., soared 77 percent last week when that company got the nod to build pieces of those units, for assembly at TeraBeam's 100-person research, development and manufacturing facility in Redmond." How many customers in the nation will pay $6000 per month. Want to say 100,000, for starters? Each one will require a $150 'heart of the window sill unit". Say Meade get $50 for the optics in each one - way too high but for the sake of argument. So Mead gets $50 times 100,000 or $5 million in revenue if all goes well. Perhaps $2.5 million in additional profit over maybe 3 years - best case? Meade has 8 million shares outstanding and has increased in market value by $300 million on the basis of the news of this potential $2.5 million of non-recurring profits. RIDICULOUS - someone is going to get hurt. OTOH, IMO, Meade was an undiscovered under-valued gem of a stock before this news. Nice growth - a lot of w hich is due to stamping their brand on Chinese binoculars, tho - nice products. For the added eyes, I give Meade a $30 price, up from $20 two weeks ago. peter