Jack,
truly a bullish report.
by the way it only took me a few minutes to translate the Japanese for you guys.....:-)
<<Mobile Phone Components Reported in Short Supply
March 24, 2000 (TOKYO) -- The shortage of parts for mobile phones will persist through
the end of 2000, according to Hisanori Shimoi, director of equity research at Nikko
Salomon Smith Barney Ltd.
Since mid-1999, production of the electronics parts has not met actual demand due to the
rapid increase in subscribers to mobile phone services. One of the large mobile-phone
makers could only fill 70 percent of its demand for such electronics parts. The imbalanced
in supply and demand is quite serious.
The electronics parts in greatest demand are as follows: (1) liquid-crystal panel driving
ICs; (2) laminated ceramic condensers; (3) flash EEPROMs; and (4) surface acoustic filters
(SAWs). Also in short supply are Ta condensers and temperature compensated crystal
oscillators (TCXOs).
Shimoi said that a balance in supply and demand won't occur until the end of 2000 at the
earliest. New factories of large electronics manufacturers, including Murata Mfg. Co.,
Ltd., will be ready to produce the specific electronics parts by the end of this year.
However, it isn't likely that the supply will exceed demand. Shimoi said this is because the
electronics manufacturers have been hit several times in meeting the demand from the
mobile-phone market. In the past, they secured their production rates according to the
demand, but it turned out that the consumer demand for mobile phones did not increase
as expected. Consequently, the prices of the electronics fell due to surplus supplies.
Learning from those experiences, the electronics manufacturers are cautious about
raising their production rates.
Also, no new firms will produce condensers and crystal oscillators because of the
immense technical barriers. As for the liquid-crystal panel driving ICs, design rules such
as 0.6 microns and 0.8 microns, which were built some ten years ago, are still used on the
production lines because high voltages are required. But firms are not willing to invest in
building such an old-fashioned production line. So there won't be an abrupt increase in
the production of such electronics parts.
The following is a list of market share of electronics for mobile phones:
Liquid-crystal panels; Seiko Epson Corp. (43 percent), Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. (34
percent), Optrex Corp. (13 percent), Seiko Instruments Inc. (5 percent), Royal Philips
Electronics NV (2 percent)
Liquid-crystal panel drivers; Seiko Epson Corp. (70 percent), Royal Philips Electronics
NV, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Rohm Co., Ltd., New Japan Radio Co., Ltd.
Laminated ceramic condensers; Murata Mfg. Co., Ltd. (45 percent), TDK Corp. (23
percent), Taiyoyuden Co., Ltd.(12 percent), Kyocera Corp. (10 percent), AVX Corp. (10
percent)
SAW filters; Fujitsu Media Devices Ltd., Infineon Technologies AG, Matsushita
Electronic Components Co., Ltd., Murata Mfg. Co., Ltd., Toshiba Corp.
TCXOs; Toyo Communication Equipment Co., Ltd., Nihon Dempa Kogyo Co., Ltd.,
Kyocera Corp., Kinseki Ltd., Daishinku Corp.
SMKs (mobile antennas); Yokowo Co., Ltd., Nippon Antenna Co., Ltd., Murata Mfg. Co.,
Ltd., Sansei Electric Co., Ltd., SMK Corp.
LEDs (light-emitting diodes); Citizen Electronics Co., Ltd. (35 percent), Rohm Co., Ltd.
(10 percent), Stanley Electric Co., Ltd. (10 percent), Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.,
Ltd. (10 percent)
Source: Nikko Salomon Smith Barney Ltd.
(Nikkei El>>
No specific mention of Gas chips BUT the trend, nevertheless, is our friend.
I notice no stateside manufacturers are mentioned for any of the components experiencing shortages; no wonder we have a friggin' trade imbalance; damn! Gotta a little excited with the mention of shortages of SAWS ( with, of course, SAWS in mind).
L |
