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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Billy Barooo who wrote (21313)	3/25/2000 1:45:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Billy's post without the fixed font: GSPN chatter: I have been watching this board off and on since I bought GSPN back in September. I work in the industry and have seen first hand how aggressive GSPN has been in winning market share away from CNXT in HDSL/HDSL2. This was a $100M business for CNXT that will be lost almost entirely to GSPN due to an inability to execute as quickly and efficiently. GSPN products are microprocessor based and are therefore software programmable (no waiting months for fab turn around when fixing bugs). Their secret sauce is that they somehow manage to beat full custom chips on power consumption which is typically what you give away with a uP core. Their earnings will be outstanding in the next quarter. No doubt that they will split again and soon reach 15-20B market cap. They are market leaders for now, but there is a kryptonic vulnerability. They cannot build a complete transceiver - they can build digital ASICs and assemble analog components from BurrBrown or Analog Devices but they lack in-house analog designers. Companies like MTLK/CNXT/INTC/TI can do it all - they just aren't going to outpace GSPN in the development cycle. They will catch up eventually because the products aren't evolving fast enough due to the sluggishness in standards bodies. Here's a loose cannon prediction. The marriage of BRCM and GSPN. BRCM has the best analog designers on the planet and a strong desire to get into DSL. They have zero probability of amassing the DSP talent that exists at GSPN/PAIR (remember that GSPN bought BRCM's long lost older brother - Samueli's first born). A merger would corner the market in broadband wire-based access. BroadSpan would then have a very good chance of becoming the next Intel. You heard it here first ...