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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8149)	3/25/2000 9:03:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 9256

I'm about to become a convert to stocksplit.com and it will surely be the final capitulation. Go for it Z. It seems like everyone I know is making handfuls of money doing stuff like this. Buying stocks that have risen 10 fold, splits, options, LEAPS, daytrading all magnified with a huge amount of margin. How do you explain to someone who just made $100,000 in one week that what they are doing is stupid? Nobody listens to me anymore so I've basically just shut up and will wait for the thing to play out. As Sam said earlier, the more speculative the stock is the better it has performed. Even though I have had a really good year, I can't help but wonder how much more I would have made if I had taken all those speculative bets and used margin to boot!

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8149)	3/25/2000 10:13:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

>> But the summer tech sell-off which can take place any time between February and October is an evil, fiendish phenomenom, more resiliant than the cockroach, more powerful than a locomotive and less predictable than a cornered tiger. << Well, I can't dispute the resiliency and power, but predictability may be manageable. There is a disk drive sold for nearly each processor. So we can watch sales at INTC and AMD. Prices can be known ahead of the Q reports by checking the on-line shops. And for the general picture, you can look at Cisco and other networking sales. The ONLY purpose of Cisco equipment is to provide access to data contained on disk drives. The factor that is hard to know in advance is the distribution of revenue among the 6 large DD vendors. So for that, one has to take the shotgun approach. Predicting share price reaction is simple. Stocks with rising revenues and earnings estimates go up. The estimates for DD stocks are still very low. WDC's estimate is -30c for Q1. That is up from -50c a week ago. If this goes to break even or positive in Q2, then $20/sh is a sure thing. The stock is up 50% in 2 weeks. Similarly, MXTR's estimate went from -30c to +10c. The stock is up 30% in the 2 weeks. The sleeper right now is HDD. Its estimates are still for +4c. That is sure to go up since enterprise disk drives are selling very well, and at high prices. So I look for HDD to go to $15/sh or higher in 2 weeks, also. Now lets hope for a good price report from Mark M. Optimistically -Sarmad

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8149)	3/25/2000 5:00:00 PM
From: voodooist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Z, re the inevitable (?) tech sell-off which I used to believe in: I have just pulled up charts of some stocks I used to trade and sold way too early and can't find a trace of the summer doldrums in 1999: random sample: IRF, VSH, KEM, NSM, AVX, MANU. I'm sure there are a many others. (except the DD's?). Long MXTR.

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (8149)	3/25/2000 6:26:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Respond to of 9256

Z, Just a little snippet to show how vulnerable the hard drive is in consumer devices like consoles-- it was apparently a very close call-- hard drive-no hard drive: <<The first big conflict flared in May. In a meeting with the X-Box team, Mr. Gates agreed with a demand from Ed Fries, general manager of Microsoft's game division, that unlike competitors' game consoles, the machine should have a hard drive. He argued that it was a strategic feature that could make games designed for the X-Box richer in terms of animation, audio, speed and expandability. Opponents responded with the classic arguments: A hard drive is a liability because it introduces complexity, cost and reliability problems. The group decided to keep the hard drive, but it had to continue to justify its presence at each contentious product meeting.>> No direct link-- go to WSJ.com-- search> enter x-box. select March 10-- How Four Renegades Persuaded Microsoft to Make a Game Machine (http://update2.wsj.com/documents/search.htm) Re: Summer sell off -- Monday? <<MICROSOFT'S OFFER to settle its antitrust trial is considered inadequate by government lawyers in important areas that there were no immediate plans to resume negotiations in Chicago, people close to the case said Saturday. >> Paul