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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Jung who wrote (44076)	3/25/2000 7:51:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Greg, that is nice to mention the 50% retracement from the peak, but may I ask how much appreciation was made during the last 6 to 9 months?? Now to put it all in perspective to aprove a drug it takes around 5 to 10 years, so let put in some discounting mechanism like FV at 15% due to the average risk factor of the group. Or should we insert 25% and not 15% in our FV formula as the NAZ or SPX "risk free a year" return <GGGG> So paying for a biotech stock $15 today is should be $125 in 5 years or $500 in 10 years. CRA is now $125 so in 5 years it should be $1000. CRA was only $7 to $9 last summer so it may have run ahead of itself during the last 6 to 9 months and achived it target of 5 years forward not to mention it's peak at $276 which is about 8 to 9 years forward....... and all this assuming they have a blockbuster in the bag. BWDIK Haim