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To: Jill who wrote (9240)	3/25/2000 1:03:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

on Cisco: Juniper is cutting into C's router market share expect a much more pronouned erosion in the next several months from Nortel Juniper is your warning signal next comes Foundry, Nortel, Lucent, Ciena then comes the optical switching powers ... like Sycamore, Avanex, etc its current PEratio is 140-150 that might be acceptable for a mktcap of under $100B its growth rate is 35-40% annually it doesnt have huge blue sky overhead it has dominated recently with internet equipmt sales but with faster bandwidth requirements, I see it losing market share very quickly you are relying upon naive investors buying their name not their growth and future dominance seems to me that CSCO buyers are buying past success reminds me of buying Compaq about 5-6 years ago reminds me of Microsoft 2-3 years ago reminds me of Peoplesoft 4-5 years ago I noticed you didnt answer my question "how do you expect Cisco to respond to the fiberoptic threat from Nortel and Lucent when they are wedded to packetswitch and now SONET?" I suppose you see Cisco attaining $1-2 trillion marketcap in the next couple years? if you dont wish to pursue, fine I dont give a shit about Cisco their IOS is a standard, but their hardware is gonna be passed up by faster newer greater bandwidth what does Cisco do when their routers compete with Nortel's which might be 10 times faster? / Jim