To: wontgetfooledagin who wrote (1140 ) 3/27/2000 4:17:00 AM From: scott_jiminez Respond to of 4474
<OT> WGFA - One of the reasons I chose Univec as one of my medical device stocks was because what I perceived to be a gross undervaluation. I believe you will find this to be a consistent pattern of my selections: for instance, my choice in the semiconductor-equipment field is Kulicke and Soffa Industries (KLIC), a company with an absurdly low PEG, and implied PEs of ~21 and 15 for FY00 and FY01 respectively (both less than 1/2 the sector average). My judgement of undervaluation for Univec was based on a number factors. Their single use syringes are effective and efficient. The company is extremely small and, after some very real growing pains, is now able to rapidly process large orders. For instance, the Japanese government placed orders for 20 million syringes in February - by far the largest orders in the company's history. However the fact that left the greatest impression was the company's long standing relationship with various NGOs (The WHO, UNICEF, etc). During my original homework, I found that the CEO had excellent ties - and the company had a firm working relationship - with the international medical/relief agency community. This fact has often been masked by concerns regarding the company's financing etc. While these concerns were legitimate (see below), it is my belief they are fading into history as the company receives substantial orders [and as I've stated elsewhere on SI, using Gliatech as a prime example, it is always ESSENTIAL to form your own opinions about a company...no matter how well informed an apparent 'expert' APPEARS to be]. Thus I found that Univec had already established strong political connections with the international health community ...and I am unaware of any provision of significantly discounted pricing. My impression was that if the drive towards safer needle/syringe usage continues to expand rapidly internationally, the company is likely to do very well. It wouldn't take much to convert Univec into a profitable company. In addition, if the company's products become more widely known in the international arena, there's a much greater likelihood they could break through the near monopoly in the domestic market. And with the very public push towards greater hospital safety over the past 6 weeks, I was left with the strong impression that a positive 'critical mass' was approaching for the company. -------------------- I strongly suggest reading the recent SEC filing linked below. It contains everything you would ever want to read to scare you away from a company....including a federal indictment of the CEO regarding a 1991 non-Univec related transaction. If you're familiar with reading such filings from biotech companies, you will recognize much of the language and acknowledge the risk. On a scale of 1-10 (10 = highest risk), I would rate Univec an 8 or 9. Having stated that, my recent experience with Ariad should give you pause before completely dismissing Univec: 8 months ago you could have read a very similar statement in Ariad's archives and easily perceived a completely doomed scenario. Especially since the stock was trading at ~$0.75 at the time. It was during that period that I doubled my holdings in the warrants to 25,000 shares. 80% of this investment was liquidated in late February since it had become far too large a percentage of my portfolio. My investment approach to Univec over the last couple of weeks parallels that for Ariad.freeedgar.com