SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mark Madden who wrote (8158)3/25/2000 11:44:00 PM
From: Return to Sender  Respond to of 9256
 
Many of these traditional Disk Drive companies are making investments in new areas of higher growth and potentially higher margins. This is happening at a time when upgrades and higher expectations are likely to be exceeded by actual earnings. Result? In my opinion we will see much greater increases in the stock prices in the sector.

biz.yahoo.com

Storage Appliance Markets Continue to Expand

SANTA BARBARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2000--The non-conventional disk and tape storage markets are continuing to expand, and may account for 20-25 percent of the disk drive shipments in the 2003-2004 time frame (approximately 50 million disk drives).

Although the forecast numbers and applications are still somewhat fluid, the use of disk and tape storage in non-conventional markets is increasing. The storage appliance markets are defined as:

-- Consumer set-top and set-back boxes
-- Digital camera storage
-- Storage in laser printers, fax machines
-- Global positioning systems, automobile applications
-- Appliance applications, sewing machines
-- Gaming machines
-- Wearable computers
-- Other emerging markets

The fastest-growing segments of these new markets are the set-top boxes and digital cameras. The set-top box market has consumed approximately 4 million drives to date.

The digital camera market has been using flash memory and is projected to grow from under 5 million camera units in 1999 to approximately 30 million cameras in 2002. The number of storage devices per camera will be 4-5 per year per camera.

IBM, and soon Halo, will be shipping disk drives into this market at lower cost than flash and less rugged; a percentage of this market is expected to use disk drives.

Dennis Waid, president of Peripheral Research Corp., stated, ``We will experience many new markets for these cost-effective storage products develop over the next 3 years, many of which we cannot define today.'

The 2000 Non-conventional Storage Applications Report (March 2000), published by Peripheral Research, identifies trends and forecasts for the above markets.

A forecast summary follows:
 

INDUSTRY SEGMENT STORAGE REQUIREMENTS
(All Storage Types, Units 000)

1999 2003

Laser Printers 980.1 3,159.2

GPS Systems 100.0 1,300.0

Set-Top Boxes 3,500.0 26,400.0

Digital Cameras 11,200.0 68,000.0

Others(a) 802.3 8,094.6

Totals 16,582.4 106,953.8

(a) Others includes appliance, MP-3, gaming industries and new
applications.


Data Storage industry revenue could approach $9 billion in 2004, up from approximately $1 billion in 1999.

All of the conventional storage companies today (Fujitsu, IBM, Maxtor, Seagate, Quantum, Western Digital, SanDisk, Halo and others) have marketing groups dedicated to these new markets. All of the camera companies and the set-top box manufacturers, such as Scientific Atlanta, TiVo, Replay, General Instruments, Panasonic and Web-TV, are using disk storage in their products.


For additional information or a copy of the executive summary, contact Dennis Waid, Peripheral Research Corp., 351 Hitchcock Way, No. B-200, Santa Barbara, Calif. 93105; telephone 805/563-9720.

Contact:

Peripheral Research Corp., Santa Barbara
Dennis Waid, 805/563-9720
805/563-6020 fax
E-mail: waidprc@aol.com



To: Mark Madden who wrote (8158)3/26/2000 12:13:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9256
 
>> Wouldn't it be nice if people knew a faster disk drive would save them more time then a faster processor, for much lower cost.
<<

Mark,
It is the fault of the DD makers that they do not direct their marketing to end users. The box makers don't disclose what disk brand or model they use (except HP which is all Quantum). That way they retain the flexibility to punish any DD maker who doesn't subsidize them.

But on a more immediate subject. The estimates for WDC for the March Q were raised from -50C to -30c. Is it reasonable to expect that WDC will lose over $45 million this Q, while the other DD companies all make profit ? I am estimating that WDC will come very close to break-even, and therefore I expect the stock to rise sharply by end of April. But a $45 million loss could sink the stock to under $5/sh again.

A more optimistic spin is that analysts are not closely looking at the DD business yet. So the estimates are just plain wrong. For example, the estimate on Maxtor was -30c until the day that Maxtor pre-announced a small profit. WDC stock price is behaving very well the past 2 weeks. So maybe the brokers will not change estimates until they are done accumulating shares.

Should be a suspenceful 4 weeks.

edit. To break even, WDC needed to improve their gross margin by $10/drive. Since prices did not rise, the improvement would have to come from a better mix, or from cost savings. I wonder if this is an impossible mission at this time ?

Regards,
-Sarmad