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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: that_crazy_doug who wrote (100012)	3/26/2000 6:29:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1573682

<It may be my naive understanding of microsprocessor design, but I thought it took years to design the processors. > This is true. K7 took about 2 years. <Given that, it seems unlikely that if sledgehammer was really going to appear in Q1 or even H1 of 2001 that they'd have enough time to tweak it to be better than willamete if it isn't going to be better already. > That is correct. I am not taking about tweaking which will be done to some extent. I am talking more about the philospohical issues on how processors are architected/designed. Designs are done to meet the performance parameters for the target time frame. <Of course, one would have to assume, that it'd have to be better than athlon, which gives it good hope. On the otherhand, until you get first silicon you never really know what you've got.> I have seen many projects that languished after first silicon. In my book, it ain't over until the chip ships. <Intel is in a precarious position. They can't afford to have a repeat of the problems with the willamete launch that they had with the coppermine launch, however at the same time they need to launch it asap, because after the 1 ghz fiasco, it's quite obvious the athlon will scale significantly better than the coppermine.> This is the biggest risk that is facing Intel and probably 99% of the people recommending or buying Intel today do not understand it. I was looking at getting into Intel after some of these execution risks are out but given the recent run-up it appears to me that all the upside for the stock for the next year or two is already discounted into the stock. <I'd get real nervous trying to hold the stock until then if athlon is beaten badly by willamete, and willamete reaches volume in Q1. > I don't see much downside to AMD well into 2001 - I have shared my thinking about this issues in some of my earlier posts. <From the discussions I've heard about willamete it doesn't seem like intel should have problems yielding high mhz (or ghz for that matter) parts. > This appears to be the case - we will know for sure when Wilamette enters production.