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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Digger Sacket who wrote (12789)	3/26/2000 12:27:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Digger: Re: "Maybe we're just splitting hairs. I just don't interpret his call as as a bear call." Well take the word "bear" out of the discussion. Now analyze his thinking: 5% upside with 20% or more downside risk this year. Now make your asset allocation decisions accordingly. Raise cash, stop DCA or do nothing and take the risk. Reallocate to different investments if you choose. Re: "Since Bob does not have a crystal ball, he has NOT called this one yet." Nobody said he had a crystal ball. He is assessing probabilities and risk. In fact, one only knows for sure they are in a bear market until after it has happened. It is too late then to do anything about it. Re: "Have I got this so wrong???" No, you are trying to figure out what he said in good faith. It is difficult to do because he only covers the topic when asked on the radio and so we only get bits and pieces at different times and it is difficult to put together. I think he should piece together his thinking and do it in a monologue at this point. He may want to cover it in-depth in the newsletter. Re: "I do realize that I am out of step with everyone else." I think it is important to just get in step with your own thinking given your situation after consideration of Brinker's points.