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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (62990)	3/26/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Iraq is simply replacing what they took back about 1 month ago to blackmail the US into giving them the spare parts so that they could salvage whats left of the fields they trashed in driving production to 3 mbpd. Correct me if I am wrong, but didin't US stocks begin their El Plunjo with Iraq pumping flat out to the tune of 3 mbpd? The only hope you have for oil dropping into the low twenties is if demand slows considerably. I simply do not see that happening with the number 2 consumer of oil just emerging from recession. The US govt made the same mistake of factoring in a "new round of cheating". It is a mistake they have come to regret. The bet you are making is that world economic growth flattens this QTR, ie remains constant. Just not gonna happen, IMO. I humbly submit you are in danger of making the same mistake. OPEC can meet anytime they want to cut production again and don't think they won't if by some miracle traders manage to drive prices into the low twenties for a few seconds. Hell, if prices go into the low twenties every refiner on planet earth will be buying the stuff. But I don't think it will go below 25 before refiners start sucking it up. You have also factored out the possiblity of refiners ramping up runs to produce desperately needed gaso;ine, not to mention HO, such that US crude stocks may plunge even further before appreciable new supplies hit. Remember Post - any crude prices over 21 are heaven for OS stocks, oh and don't forget $3 NG this summer will ya? There is a lot that can go wrong with your rosy bear scenario, so you might want to lay off the pompom rah rah stuff until the OSX proves you right. Your initial downside target of OSX 80 has proven to be a bust. My maximum downside of 95 - 96 has not been touched yet.