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To: JustLearning who wrote (21489)	3/27/2000 1:14:00 AM
From: kumar	Respond to of 54805

re Sonet will start dying by 2001 At this point in time, I am not aware of any vendor that can "make it happen" within 1 year from now. cheers, kumar PS: IMHO : Give CSCO a year, they'll make things happen, better than others.

To: JustLearning who wrote (21489)	3/27/2000 10:43:00 AM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Thanks Learning - I believe you may have found the missing link (i.e. Cerent). Do you know market share or sales figures for Cerent's product? As for SONET = Cisco's demise we must remember that NT is also very attached to this technology. I believe recent Nortel acquisitions are leading them away from SONET and providing a bridge to newer technologies but Nortel will be heavily impacted by SONET'S demise as well (NT is the SONET market leader I believe right now). At least Nortel is already working on products to address this. Most of their new work appears headed away from SONET.

To: JustLearning who wrote (21489)	3/27/2000 12:11:00 PM
From: mtnlady	Respond to of 54805

A little news concerning SONET and ten-gigabit ethernet switches: Optical Transport Market Grew 22% in 4Q99 According to a Dell'Oro Group Report; Nortel's Optical Business Propels Company Growth PORTOLA VALLEY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 27, 2000--The Optical Transport market grew 22% Q/Q in 4Q99 to $4.9 B, according to a Dell'Oro Group Report published earlier this month. This market growth was driven primarily from Alcatel (up 69%) and Nortel (up 22%). Throughout 1999, Nortel's Optical sales almost doubled over 1998 levels, largely because its system supported OC-192 speeds, while its competitors' did not. Two-thirds of the interfaces sold on SONET/SDH Multiplexers are DS-1 speeds and typically connect enterprise networks to the WAN network. "SONET/SDH has been a favored technology for this application because of its rich management and administrative features", says Tam Dell'Oro, Founder of Dell'Oro Group. "However, Ethernet technology manufacturers are suggesting that the end-points of the WAN network require lower levels of management and administration." In the future, it is possible that enterprises will be connected to the WAN with gigabit or ten-gigabit Ethernet Switches, priced at a fraction of the cost of SONET/SDH Multiplexers. Market Leaders DWDM-Long Haul Terrestrial & Metro & SONET/SDH Multiplexers Quarterly Total Market 4Q99 Growth MFG Revenue ($M) $4,940 + 22% Vendor Rank Growth Nortel 1 +22% Lucent 2 +6% Alcatel 3 +69% Fujitsu 4 +15% Marconi 5 +50% *T -0- Dell'Oro Group's WAN Report tracks Multiservice WAN Switch -- Core & Edge, WAN Routers, DWDM (Long Haul and Metro), and SONET/SDH Multiplexers. The report reflects worldwide data on revenue, unit/port shipments, and pricing on a vendor-by-vendor basis. The Dell'Oro Group is a research and consulting firm specializing in business planning and strategic competitive analysis in the networking industry.