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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (8178)	3/28/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 9256

Stich, >> Just one more comment: don't count on upstream markets to offer margin relief. If everyone swims upstream price pressures will follow. << To follow this reasoning further, do you expect a big erosion in the market cap of EMC and NetApp ? I am thinking it could go either way. As a DD optimist, I expect WDC and Maxtor to benefit from being associated with the Net Storage devices. Of course the pessimistic view is that in their share grab they will destroy profitability in NAS the same way Fugitsu destroyed profitability for the DD makers in 1998/1999. However, at the moment, it seems there will be positive surprise in DD revenues and earnings. Surely the analysts could not be right in rating MXTR, HDD and WDC as "avoid" when they were at their all time lows a few months ago. I believe today we saw a breakout in the share price of MXTR and HDD. Usually MXTR leads, HDD follows and WDC brings up the rear. My bet is that despite the best efforts of Morgan Stanley, WDC will break into double digits in early April, and into the 20's by July. Of course then the analysts will discover the obvious, and it will be blue sky from there. By the way, congrats on your call on SEG. It encouraged me to hold on during the down draft early this year. I sold my last lot today, and rolled the proceeds to its lesser DD brethren. Good luck in your investments. -Sarmad